0x0f362aef49b1d573a8aa9180ff3177f9638f7d79
0x0f362aef49b1d573a8aa9180ff3177f9638f7d79
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
8
Open notional
$143.64
Total PnL
$54.45
Realised
$24.87
Win rate
50%
4 closed
Largest open positions
- NO
Will Chloé Zhao win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?
60 shares @ 99.3¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 15, 2026$60.00
$0.42
- NO
AI bubble burst in 2026?
70 shares @ 50.0¢·now 80.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$56.35
$21.35
- NO
Will Microsoft acquire TikTok?
7 shares @ 50.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$7.00
$3.50
- NO
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
7 shares @ 94.0¢·now 99.6¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$6.97
$0.39
- YES
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
7 shares @ 52.6¢·now 78.8¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$5.52
$1.83
- NO
Will Paramount close Warner Bros. acquisition by end of 2026?
6 shares @ 34.5¢·now 73.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$4.38
$2.31
- NO
Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026?
3 shares @ 83.0¢·now 90.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.70
$0.21
- YES
Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?
5 shares @ 23.0¢·now 14.3¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.72
$-0.43
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill The Netherlands recognize Palestine before 2027?$7.83Jul 12, 14:26 UTC
- TRADESELLUkraine joins NATO before 2027?$6.68Jul 10, 11:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYUkraine joins NATO before 2027?$6.75Jul 10, 07:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill The Netherlands recognize Palestine before 2027?$7.87Jul 9, 19:07 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Japan recognize Palestine before 2027?$4.45Jul 5, 05:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Japan recognize Palestine before 2027?$4.47Jul 5, 03:21 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Italy recognize Palestine before 2027?$4.65Jun 30, 03:27 UTC
- TRADESELLWill The Netherlands recognize Palestine before 2027?$2.09Jun 27, 17:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill The Netherlands recognize Palestine before 2027?$2.16Jun 27, 13:18 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Somaliland join the Abraham Accords before 2027?$2.66Jun 27, 01:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Somaliland join the Abraham Accords before 2027?$3.08Jun 25, 00:47 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael x Turkey military clash before 2027?$4.30Jun 22, 00:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Turkey military clash before 2027?$4.30Jun 21, 21:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Italy recognize Palestine before 2027?$4.23Jun 21, 20:36 UTC
- TRADESELLAziz Akhannouch out as Morocco Prime Minister by December 31, 2026?$10.37Jun 18, 03:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYAziz Akhannouch out as Morocco Prime Minister by December 31, 2026?$10.42Jun 16, 02:55 UTC
- TRADESELLAziz Akhannouch out as Morocco Prime Minister by December 31, 2026?$1.90Jun 15, 18:11 UTC
- TRADESELLAziz Akhannouch out as Morocco Prime Minister by December 31, 2026?$6.22Jun 13, 10:55 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Belgium recognize Palestine before 2027?$4.32Jun 11, 09:36 UTC
- TRADESELLWill a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?$2.80Jun 9, 08:11 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
23/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
50% win rate over 4 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 56/100.
4 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $4.68
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 12, 06:46 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 12, 14:26 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 4 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.