Spry-Neologism
0x2b782f6054852b3572d942bb64ddb605c6cdeeb9
Wallet digest
Activity score
71/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$226.60
Total PnL
$-531.05
Realised
$1.15
Win rate
44%
9 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- NO
Will Apple release a new product line before 2027?
14 shares @ 42.0¢·now 63.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$9.10
$3.03
- NO
Will the Social Democratic Party (PSD) be included in the next Romanian government?
21 shares @ 27.3¢·now 41.6¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$8.70
$3.01
- NO
Cilia Flores released from custody by December 31, 2026?
10 shares @ 57.3¢·now 82.5¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$7.90
$2.41
- YES
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
8 shares @ 70.4¢·now 84.2¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$7.15
$1.17
- OPENAI
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?
26 shares @ 23.2¢·now 27.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2027$6.96
$0.97
- YES
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?
19 shares @ 31.9¢·now 36.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$6.86
$0.86
- NO
Will Neymar Jr. score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
10 shares @ 60.5¢·now 67.5¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$6.75
$0.70
- NO
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30?
7 shares @ 70.9¢·now 99.6¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$6.57
$1.89
- YES
Will John James win the 2026 Michigan Governor Republican primary election?
8 shares @ 43.5¢·now 82.5¢·exp Aug 4, 2026$6.34
$3.00
- YES
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
8 shares @ 70.5¢·now 80.5¢·exp Jun 27, 2026$6.14
$0.76
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Michael Bennet win the 2026 Colorado Governor Democratic primary election?$1.15Jun 26, 02:26 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Kamala Harris announce a Presidential run before 2027?$3.92Jun 26, 02:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Democrats win the Georgia governor race in 2026?$1.02Jun 26, 02:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by July 31?$1.00Jun 26, 02:26 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 26, 00:11 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?$1.49Jun 25, 18:30 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 25, 00:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026?$1.01Jun 24, 19:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?$3.20Jun 24, 19:03 UTC
- TRADESELLFriedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?$4.17Jun 24, 19:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Democrats win the Georgia governor race in 2026?$1.02Jun 24, 19:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?$1.38Jun 24, 11:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Keir Starmer be in the Burnham cabinet?$1.01Jun 24, 11:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Michael Bennet win the 2026 Colorado Governor Democratic primary election?$3.54Jun 24, 11:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYOpensea FDV above $100M one day after launch?$1.28Jun 24, 11:07 UTC
- REDEEMWill Adriano Espaillat be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13?$3.06Jun 24, 06:10 UTC
- REDEEMWill Beth Davidson be the Democratic nominee for NY-17?$5.00Jun 24, 05:08 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 24, 00:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Shannon Bird be the Democratic nominee for CO-08?$1.00Jun 23, 19:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Shehbaz Sharif attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?$1.00Jun 23, 19:15 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
30/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
44% win rate over 9 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
41 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 45/100.
9 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 41
- Avg trade size
- $1.94
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 21, 20:51 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 26, 02:26 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 9 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.