0x35df17a7bc98ebcf9e8ee5c958ad778c8aadcf97
0x35df17a7bc98ebcf9e8ee5c958ad778c8aadcf97
Wallet digest
Activity score
93/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
110
Open notional
$287.41
Total PnL
$-317.51
Realised
$61.38
Win rate
100%
14 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 110- NO
Will the Democrats win the North Carolina Senate race in 2026?
94 shares @ 16.0¢·now 13.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$12.19
$-2.81
- NO
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026?
12 shares @ 68.4¢·now 100.0¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$11.69
$3.69
- NO
Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?
31 shares @ 26.0¢·now 36.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$11.23
$3.23
- NO
Will the Republicans win the Vermont governor race in 2026?
75 shares @ 20.0¢·now 13.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$10.13
$-4.88
- YES
Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027?
77 shares @ 10.4¢·now 11.7¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$9.00
$1.00
- NO
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
15 shares @ 34.0¢·now 51.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$7.57
$2.57
- NO
Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record?
15 shares @ 33.0¢·now 46.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$7.05
$2.05
- NO
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
13 shares @ 62.6¢·now 54.0¢·exp Oct 31, 2026$6.90
$-1.09
- YES
Will Oman join the Abraham Accords before 2027?
156 shares @ 3.2¢·now 4.4¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$6.88
$1.88
- YES
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026?
279 shares @ 4.3¢·now 2.3¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$6.42
$-5.58
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.01Jul 28, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 27, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 26, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 25, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 24, 00:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Kamala Harris announce a Presidential run before 2027?$5.18Jul 23, 16:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Oman join the Abraham Accords before 2027?$5.00Jul 23, 15:27 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 23, 00:15 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Bernie endorse James Talarico for TX-Sen by Nov 2 2026 ET?$0.56Jul 22, 18:54 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?$11.62Jul 22, 18:53 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 22, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 21, 20:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 21, 00:12 UTC
- TRADESELLNew Rihanna Album before GTA VI?$5.49Jul 19, 11:33 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 19, 00:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Germany recognize Palestine before 2027?$5.19Jul 18, 14:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?$5.05Jul 18, 14:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be at least 5000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?$5.00Jul 18, 14:43 UTC
- TRADESELLWill GPT-6 be released before GTA VI?$2.23Jul 18, 06:02 UTC
- TRADESELLWill China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?$4.97Jul 18, 06:02 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
35/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
100% win rate over 14 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
20 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 37/100.
14 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 20
- Avg trade size
- $4.49
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 30, 00:16 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 00:11 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 14 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.