0x471931a87ab99d16b2e2e70b74906b6c8b796487
0x471931a87ab99d16b2e2e70b74906b6c8b796487
Wallet digest
Activity score
88/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
11
Open notional
$2.1K
Total PnL
$-48.53
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 11- NO
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
1235 shares @ 38.9¢·now 26.6¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$328.43
$-151.64
- YES
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?
343 shares @ 58.0¢·now 81.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$279.67
$80.67
- NO
Iran leadership change by December 31?
332 shares @ 60.0¢·now 79.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$263.67
$64.67
- NO
Joseph Aoun out as President of Lebanon by December 31?
258 shares @ 87.8¢·now 88.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$226.95
$0.60
- NO
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
240 shares @ 83.0¢·now 90.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$216.98
$17.98
- NO
Iran Nuke before 2027?
222 shares @ 89.7¢·now 92.7¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$206.11
$6.51
- NO
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?
418 shares @ 47.5¢·now 46.9¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$196.46
$-2.54
- NO
Will Lebanon join the Abraham Accords before 2027?
209 shares @ 83.0¢·now 83.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$174.74
$1.05
- NO
US strike on Cuba by December 31?
297 shares @ 67.0¢·now 57.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$170.78
$-28.22
- YES
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?
168 shares @ 41.3¢·now 21.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$35.37
$-34.27
Recent activity
- TRADESELLUS recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?$214.30Jun 8, 09:11 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027?$225.44Jun 8, 09:09 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Iranian regime fall before 2027?$230.11Jun 8, 09:08 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?$435.74Jun 8, 09:07 UTC
- TRADESELLUS strike on Mexico by December 31?$230.38Jun 5, 16:34 UTC
- TRADESELLFed rate hike in 2026?$297.43Jun 5, 16:32 UTC
- REDEEMStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?$0.00Jun 3, 17:30 UTC
- REDEEMWill Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 28, 2026?$0.00Jun 2, 06:56 UTC
- REDEEMWill Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?$184.94Jun 1, 18:51 UTC
- REDEEMIran closes its airspace by May 31?$146.32Jun 1, 18:51 UTC
- REDEEMUS obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?$236.09Jun 1, 18:50 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?$231.87May 30, 09:33 UTC
- REDEEMWill Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 29, 2026?$0.00May 30, 09:31 UTC
- REDEEMWill Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 27, 2026?$0.00May 29, 10:45 UTC
- REDEEMWill Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 26, 2026?$0.00May 27, 00:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYNaim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by June 30, 2026?$6.06May 24, 09:19 UTC
- REDEEMWill Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 21, 2026?$0.00May 21, 23:32 UTC
- REDEEMWill Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 20, 2026?$0.00May 20, 21:35 UTC
- REDEEMWill Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 18, 2026?$0.00May 19, 14:34 UTC
- REDEEMWill Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 17, 2026?$0.00May 18, 13:23 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 28
- Avg trade size
- $134.59
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 2, 03:29 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 8, 09:11 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.