Intentional-Kitten
0x63c652270a37e53a170303b6b264a2aa835743a5
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
13
Open notional
$6.8K
Total PnL
$-231.45
Realised
$136.22
Win rate
100%
4 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 13- NO
Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1550 by December 31?
3428 shares @ 30.0¢·now 82.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.8K
$1.8K
- NO
Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1700 by December 31?
1379 shares @ 88.4¢·now 96.2¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.3K
$107.76
- NO
Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026?
1000 shares @ 89.0¢·now 97.3¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$972.98
$83.00
- NO
Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1650 by December 31?
963 shares @ 83.3¢·now 92.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$891.20
$88.72
- YES
Will no company have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?
555 shares @ 24.4¢·now 77.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$429.98
$294.81
- NO
Will Trump launch a coin by December 31?
293 shares @ 76.0¢·now 89.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$261.97
$39.51
- NO
Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach 1.4m barrels per day in 2026?
60 shares @ 56.0¢·now 90.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2027$54.00
$20.40
- YES
Will SpaceX have between 160-179 launches in 2026?
53 shares @ 20.7¢·now 67.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$35.20
$24.34
- NO
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?
2379 shares @ 77.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-1.8K
- YES
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?
1211 shares @ 65.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-787.84
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?$1.5KJul 28, 22:58 UTC
- REDEEMWill an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?$120.00Jul 1, 07:54 UTC
- REDEEMWill xAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?$2.0KJul 1, 06:06 UTC
- REDEEMWill OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?$2.0KJul 1, 06:05 UTC
- REDEEMWill DeepSeek have a #1 AI model by June 30?$736.58Jul 1, 06:05 UTC
- REDEEMUS-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?$96.92Jun 15, 02:46 UTC
- REDEEMMicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?$4.0KJun 1, 19:06 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elon Musk buy Ryanair?$497.92May 31, 11:50 UTC
- REDEEMWill Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair?$4.4KMay 17, 18:48 UTC
- REWARD$1.50May 14, 00:00 UTC
- TRADESELLMicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?$157.46May 13, 11:59 UTC
- TRADESELLMicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?$1.2KMay 13, 08:55 UTC
- MAKER_REBATE$4.71May 12, 00:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYMicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?$700.00May 11, 12:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYMicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?$360.00May 11, 12:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYMicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?$1.5KMay 11, 11:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYMicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?$340.60May 11, 11:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYMicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?$1.5KMay 11, 11:58 UTC
- YIELD$0.16May 10, 00:14 UTC
- MERGEWill JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$7.0KMay 9, 04:15 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
15/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
100% win rate over 4 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
9 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 74/100.
4 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 9
- Avg trade size
- $862.57
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 12, 00:12 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 22:58 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 4 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.