Weary-Tic
0x64c9f65ff5de426e5b36298447d27b1f64e96bde
Wallet digest
Activity score
78/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
52
Open notional
$973.69
Total PnL
$-1.7K
Realised
$16.02
Win rate
58%
12 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 52- SPACEX
Will SpaceX or OpenAI IPO first?
662 shares @ 86.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2027$662.00
$92.68
- YES
Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026?
1297 shares @ 34.0¢·now 8.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$110.25
$-330.74
- NO
Will Erik Spoelstra win the 2025–2026 NBA Coach of the Year?
71 shares @ 89.7¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$71.00
$7.31
- NO
Over $400M raised on Coinbase in 2026?
130 shares @ 18.3¢·now 49.9¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$64.81
$41.02
- NO
Will Reed Sheppard win the 2025–2026 NBA Sixth Man of the Year?
47 shares @ 87.5¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$47.00
$5.88
- NO
Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?
5 shares @ 73.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 26, 2026$5.00
$1.35
- YES
Will Cinde Warmington win the 2026 New Hampshire Governor Democratic primary election?
4 shares @ 13.0¢·now 97.8¢·exp Sep 8, 2026$3.91
$3.39
- NO
Maduro guilty of all counts?
4 shares @ 68.0¢·now 79.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2027$3.03
$0.44
- NO
Will MicroStrategy announce bankruptcy before 2027?
3 shares @ 86.2¢·now 95.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.86
$0.28
- NO
Will Yolanda Flowers win the 2026 Alabama Governor Democratic primary election?
2 shares @ 93.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 19, 2026$2.00
$0.14
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill there be at least 4000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?$6.27Apr 27, 08:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYMap 2: Odd/Even Total Kills?$202.86Apr 23, 13:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYMap 2: Odd/Even Total Kills?$398.29Apr 23, 13:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be at least 4000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?$0.51Apr 23, 12:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be at least 4000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?$1.06Apr 23, 12:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be at least 4000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?$2.31Apr 23, 12:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be at least 4000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?$2.04Apr 23, 12:03 UTC
- TRADESELLMitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?$1.68Apr 21, 04:56 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Miami Heat make the NBA Playoffs?$1.00Apr 15, 10:09 UTC
- REDEEMWill Dyson Daniels lead the NBA in steals during the 2025–26 NBA season?$8.00Apr 15, 10:09 UTC
- TRADESELLWill SpaceX have between 160-179 launches in 2026?$292.19Apr 12, 08:32 UTC
- TRADESELLWill SpaceX have between 160-179 launches in 2026?$757.01Apr 12, 08:31 UTC
- TRADESELLElon Musk trillionaire before 2027?$155.50Apr 11, 17:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill SpaceX have between 160-179 launches in 2026?$1.1KApr 10, 19:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYElon Musk trillionaire before 2027?$174.16Apr 10, 15:29 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Tatiana Auguste win the by-election for the seat of Terrebone in the House of Commons of Canada?$301.95Apr 9, 12:57 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Powell say "Shut down" or "Shutdown" during April press conference?$658.26Apr 9, 12:10 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Israel be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?$347.65Apr 9, 11:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Tatiana Auguste win the by-election for the seat of Terrebone in the House of Commons of Canada?$292.05Apr 8, 12:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Base launch a token by December 31, 2026?$317.22Apr 7, 22:25 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
26/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
58% win rate over 12 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
44 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 66/100.
12 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 44
- Avg trade size
- $215.73
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 10, 13:59 UTC
- Last active
- Apr 27, 08:19 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 12 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.