Specific-Pear-Whirlwind
0x709179e7392e59922ab2d73cb1141698b30096f8
Wallet digest
Activity score
73/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
61
Open notional
$397.95
Total PnL
$-123.82
Realised
$-37.50
Win rate
48%
27 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 61- NO
Will James Clapper be arrested before 2027?
74 shares @ 82.1¢·now 80.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$59.09
$-1.58
- NO
Will the US economy be in stagflation at the end of 2026?
60 shares @ 80.5¢·now 87.5¢·exp Jan 31, 2027$52.50
$4.20
- NO
Japan recession in 2026?
56 shares @ 73.5¢·now 91.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2027$51.34
$9.86
- NO
Will the Republican Party win the OH-07 House seat?
66 shares @ 40.8¢·now 42.0¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$27.92
$0.79
- NO
X banned in any European country by December 31?
30 shares @ 59.0¢·now 83.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$25.05
$7.35
- YES
Will Micah Lasher be the democratic nominee for NY-12?
20 shares @ 30.6¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 23, 2026$20.02
$13.89
- NO
Mike Vrabel out as Patriots Head Coach by Dec 31, 2026?
21 shares @ 65.8¢·now 91.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$19.53
$5.42
- YES
FaZe roster change Before GTA VI?
15 shares @ 82.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$15.00
$2.70
- YES
Will Brandon Johnson be arrested before 2027?
86 shares @ 15.6¢·now 16.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$13.71
$0.30
- NO
Will Trump sell 1-100 Gold Cards in 2026?
55 shares @ 36.3¢·now 18.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$9.90
$-10.05
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill Ilia Topuria be the next fighter to be ranked first in the UFC Pound-For-Pound Rankings in 2026?$26.11Jun 19, 21:29 UTC
- MERGEWill Silver (SI) settle over $80 on the final trading day of June 2026?$1.92Jun 9, 08:46 UTC
- MERGEWill Donald Trump visit Israel in 2026?$7.05Jun 9, 08:46 UTC
- MERGEWill Predict.fun launch a token by September 30, 2026?$12.81Jun 9, 08:46 UTC
- MERGETuyo FDV above $20M one day after launch?$26.21Jun 9, 08:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Predict.fun launch a token by September 30, 2026?$8.20Jun 9, 05:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Donald Trump visit Israel in 2026?$1.90Jun 8, 20:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Silver (SI) settle over $80 on the final trading day of June 2026?$1.50Jun 8, 14:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYTuyo FDV above $20M one day after launch?$15.46Jun 8, 09:54 UTC
- MERGETuyo FDV above $50M one day after launch?$16.39Jun 8, 09:35 UTC
- MERGEWill Silver (SI) settle over $80 on the final trading day of June 2026?$20.66Jun 8, 09:35 UTC
- MERGEWill the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1470?$21.01Jun 8, 09:35 UTC
- MERGEWill Mark Tedford be the Republican nominee for OK-01?$30.00Jun 8, 09:35 UTC
- MERGEFreddie Mac IPO before 2027?$30.00Jun 8, 09:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYFreddie Mac IPO before 2027?$15.33Jun 8, 04:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYFreddie Mac IPO before 2027?$11.67Jun 8, 04:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Mark Tedford be the Republican nominee for OK-01?$1.88Jun 8, 01:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Mark Tedford be the Republican nominee for OK-01?$5.63Jun 8, 01:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYTuyo FDV above $50M one day after launch?$10.66Jun 7, 22:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Silver (SI) settle over $80 on the final trading day of June 2026?$15.91Jun 7, 15:25 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
56/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
48% win rate over 27 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
24 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 32/100.
27 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 24
- Avg trade size
- $10.94
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 5, 10:57 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 19, 21:29 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 27 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.