Flaky-Settler
0xf804941b9cef80cb249a99117655315cc74fd2b7
Wallet digest
Activity score
51/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
53
Open notional
$47.94
Total PnL
$-14.52
Realised
$-0.47
Win rate
11%
9 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 53- NO
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?
7 shares @ 80.3¢·now 91.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$6.83
$0.83
- YES
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
4 shares @ 25.7¢·now 85.9¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$3.34
$2.34
- NO
AI bubble burst in 2026?
2 shares @ 80.8¢·now 86.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.14
$0.14
- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
2 shares @ 42.0¢·now 65.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.56
$0.56
- NO
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 21, 2026?
2 shares @ 66.0¢·now 98.4¢·exp Aug 21, 2026$1.49
$0.49
- NO
U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?
2 shares @ 61.0¢·now 88.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.45
$0.45
- NO
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?
1 shares @ 69.0¢·now 94.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$1.37
$0.37
- NO
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?
1 shares @ 69.0¢·now 90.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$1.31
$0.31
- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?
1 shares @ 74.0¢·now 94.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$1.28
$0.28
- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?
1 shares @ 88.0¢·now 99.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$1.13
$0.13
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYFriedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?$1.01Aug 19, 21:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Bank of Japan announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting?$1.01Aug 19, 21:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYFed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?$1.02Aug 19, 21:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill OpenAI announce a necklace-style wearable in 2026?$1.00Aug 19, 21:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYOpenAI criminally charged in the US in 2026?$1.00Aug 19, 21:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Apple release a new product line before 2027?$1.01Aug 19, 21:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYAnother Frontier Math Problem Solved by September 30, 2026?$1.01Aug 19, 21:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYGTA 6 launch postponed again?$1.00Aug 19, 21:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill OpenAI’s Astra model be released by October 31, 2026?$1.01Aug 19, 21:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 30, 2026?$1.01Aug 19, 21:46 UTC
- TRADESELLAnother GTA VI trailer released by August 31?$1.12Aug 19, 21:43 UTC
- REDEEMUS announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?$2.04Aug 16, 06:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?$1.04Aug 13, 13:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael closes its airspace by August 31?$1.00Aug 13, 13:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?$1.00Aug 13, 13:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?$1.01Aug 13, 13:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?$1.01Aug 13, 13:45 UTC
- TRADEBUY2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House$1.02Aug 13, 13:44 UTC
- TRADEBUY2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House$1.02Aug 13, 13:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?$1.01Aug 13, 13:43 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
30/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
11% win rate over 9 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
44 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 47/100.
9 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 44
- Avg trade size
- $1.70
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 1, 06:06 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 19, 21:52 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 9 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.