OtherExpires May 2, 2026

FMP vs. Ilirija

Probability

1h

+0.0pp

24h

-79.0pp

24h Vol

$931.69

Liquidity

$26.3K

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.0pp 7d
Apr 19, 2026, 16:00Apr 25, 2026, 18:27
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 3 factors
  1. 1

    Down 79pp over 24h

    Now 0¢; flat in the last hour.

  2. 2

    Resolution-risk signal firing

    Expires in 165h with open resolution ambiguity.

  3. 3

    UMA status: proposed

    An open UMA dispute or pending oracle vote can move price independently of underlying odds. Wait for settlement before treating the line as the market view.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
  • Wait for the UMA proposal to settle (current status: proposed) — price moves now reflect oracle dynamics, not odds.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • 0s agoResolve

    Market resolves in 164.5h

    LOW
  • 18:27Signal

    Resolution risk

    Expires in 165h with open resolution ambiguity.

    LOW

Price movement

-79.0pp over the last 24h, now 0¢.

Biggest hourly move: -74.0pp at 18:27 (to 0¢).

Show all 22 hour-by-hour ticks
  • 18:27 · -74.0pp → 0¢
  • 17:00 · -71.0pp → 3¢
  • 15:00 · -26.0pp → 49¢
  • 10:00 · -3.5pp → 73¢
  • 20:00 · +6.0pp → 79¢
  • 1d ago · +27.5pp → 78¢
  • 1d ago · +24.0pp → 74¢
  • 1d ago · +21.0pp → 71¢
  • 1d ago · +22.0pp → 73¢
  • 1d ago · +24.5pp → 75¢
  • 1d ago · +24.5pp → 75¢
  • 1d ago · +24.5pp → 75¢
  • 1d ago · +24.5pp → 75¢
  • 1d ago · +24.5pp → 75¢
  • 2d ago · +24.5pp → 76¢
  • 2d ago · +21.5pp → 74¢
  • 2d ago · +23.0pp → 76¢
  • 2d ago · +23.0pp → 76¢
  • 2d ago · +23.0pp → 76¢
  • 2d ago · +22.5pp → 75¢
  • 2d ago · +22.5pp → 75¢
  • 2d ago · +22.5pp → 75¢
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Market Description

In the upcoming ABA League game, scheduled for April 25 at 11:00AM ET: If the FMP win, the market will resolve to "FMP". If the Ilirija win, the market will resolve to "Ilirija". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods.

Resolution & Risk

MEDIUM risk
End date
May 2, 2026
UMA status
proposed
Resolution source
based on the final score including any overtime periodsAmbiguous wording
aba-liga.com
Market type
Binary
  • UMA status: proposed
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

¢
Deliver

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