BNB Up or Down on April 26?
Probability
57¢
1h
+14.0pp
24h
+7.0pp
24h Vol
$34.13
Liquidity
$1.1K
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 4 factors- 1
Up 7pp over 24h
Now 57¢; +14.0pp in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 14h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Wide spread — 6.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
- 4
Expiry in 14h
Market resolves within 72 hours — the move likely reflects information about the resolution event itself rather than longer-horizon repricing. Verify the resolution source.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
- Set an alert for resolution status changes — expiry is in 14 hours.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 16:00ResolveHIGH
Market resolves in 14.2h
- 01:49SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Expires in 14h with open resolution ambiguity.
Price movement
+3.5pp over the last 24h, now 54¢.
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
Related Markets
6- 2¢+0.8pp
Starmer out by April 30, 2026?
Other · Vol $400.1K
- 4¢0.0pp
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?
Other · Vol $272.2K
- 0¢-0.9pp
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026?
Other · Vol $265.0K
- 86¢-3.0pp
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch?
Other · Vol $225.5K
- 0¢-4.6pp
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026?
Other · Vol $218.4K
- 8¢+1.6pp
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?
Other · Vol $199.3K
Market Description
This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BNB/USDT Apr 25 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Apr 26 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BNB/USDT Apr 25 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Apr 26 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BNB/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BNB_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BNB/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- Apr 26, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- Market expires Apr 26, 2026 — dispute window active.
- Wide spread (6.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.