SportsExpires Apr 25, 2026

Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs KOLESIE - Map 2 Winner

Probability

38¢

1h

-26.0pp

24h

-15.5pp

24h Vol

$4.4K

Liquidity

$8.2K

Probability (last 7 days)

-24.5pp 7d
Apr 18, 2026, 19:00Apr 25, 2026, 18:26
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 4 factors
  1. 1

    Down 16pp over 24h

    Now 38¢; -26.0pp in the last hour.

  2. 2

    Resolution-risk signal firing

    Expires in 4h with open resolution ambiguity.

  3. 3

    Thin liquidity

    Only $8.2k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

  4. 4

    Expiry in 4h

    Market resolves within 72 hours — the move likely reflects information about the resolution event itself rather than longer-horizon repricing. Verify the resolution source.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
  • Set an alert for resolution status changes — expiry is in 4 hours.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • 22:00Resolve

    Market resolves in 3.6h

    HIGH
  • 18:26Signal

    Resolution risk

    Expires in 4h with open resolution ambiguity.

    LOW

Price movement

+6.0pp over the last 24h, now 61¢.

Biggest hourly move: -17.5pp at 11:00 (to 51¢).

Show all 42 hour-by-hour ticks
  • 18:26 · -4.0pp → 61¢
  • 17:00 · -8.0pp → 60¢
  • 16:00 · -14.0pp → 55¢
  • 15:00 · -14.5pp → 54¢
  • 13:00 · -12.0pp → 55¢
  • 11:00 · -17.5pp → 51¢
  • 09:00 · -14.5pp → 53¢
  • 08:00 · -12.0pp → 55¢
  • 06:00 · -9.0pp → 57¢
  • 05:00 · -17.0pp → 50¢
  • 03:00 · -7.0pp → 53¢
  • 02:00 · -10.0pp → 55¢
  • 00:00 · -9.5pp → 56¢
  • 22:00 · +5.0pp → 71¢
  • 20:00 · -11.0pp → 52¢
  • 1d ago · -10.5pp → 55¢
  • 1d ago · -14.0pp → 55¢
  • 1d ago · -8.5pp → 56¢
  • 1d ago · -9.5pp → 57¢
  • 1d ago · -8.5pp → 56¢
  • 1d ago · -10.0pp → 57¢
  • 1d ago · -7.5pp → 59¢
  • 1d ago · -8.0pp → 57¢
  • 1d ago · -9.0pp → 56¢
  • 1d ago · -11.0pp → 54¢
  • 1d ago · -4.5pp → 61¢
  • 2d ago · -6.0pp → 61¢
  • 2d ago · +5.5pp → 68¢
  • 2d ago · +5.5pp → 68¢
  • 2d ago · +4.5pp → 67¢
  • 2d ago · +5.5pp → 68¢
  • 2d ago · +5.0pp → 65¢
  • 3d ago · +5.0pp → 65¢
  • 3d ago · +5.0pp → 69¢
  • 3d ago · +5.0pp → 69¢
  • 3d ago · +6.0pp → 67¢
  • 3d ago · +7.5pp → 68¢
  • 3d ago · +6.5pp → 67¢
  • 3d ago · +6.5pp → 68¢
  • 3d ago · +6.0pp → 67¢
  • 3d ago · +4.0pp → 65¢
  • 3d ago · +3.0pp → 66¢
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Market Description

This market refers to the Counter-Strike Quarterfinal 2 match between FOKUS and KOLESIE in the LORGAR RANKINGS Playoffs, initially scheduled for April 25 at 2:00PM ET. This market will resolve to "FOKUS" if FOKUS win Map 2 against KOLESIE. This market will resolve to "KOLESIE" if KOLESIE win Map 2 against FOKUS. If the match begins but is not completed, and Map 2 is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on the completed Map 2. If Map 2 is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without play beginning, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://hltv.org. However, if https://hltv.org has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

Resolution & Risk

HIGH risk
End date
Apr 25, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
consensus of credible reportingNews consensus
hltv.org
Market type
Binary
  • Market expires Apr 25, 2026 — dispute window active.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

¢
Deliver

In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.