Dan Driscoll out as Secretary of the Army by June 30?
Probability
36¢
1h
+1.0pp
24h
-0.5pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$87.76
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 1
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 1570h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 2
Wide spread — 51.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 1570.0h
- 13:57SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 1570h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 13:57PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.5pp
to 33¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.0pp
to 35¢
- 11:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.0pp
to 35¢
- 09:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.0pp
to 36¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.0pp
to 35¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.0pp
to 35¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.0pp
to 36¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.0pp
to 34¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.5pp
to 33¢
- 23:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.5pp
to 36¢
- 21:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.0pp
to 36¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 36¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 36¢
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 36¢
- 15:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 36¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 37¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 37¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 36¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 36¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.0pp
to 37¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.0pp
to 37¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -17.5pp
to 37¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
Related Markets
6- 61¢+1.0pp
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-25?
Other · Vol $3.0M
- 1¢-2.0pp
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?
Other · Vol $2.0M
- 100¢+59.0pp
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Anyone's Legend - Game 2 Winner
Other · Vol $1.1M
- 0¢-35.4pp
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend
Other · Vol $1.0M
- 0¢-39.5pp
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-04-25?
Other · Vol $864.1K
- 60¢+2.0pp
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-04-25?
Other · Vol $833.8K
Market Description
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Dan Driscoll ceases to be United States Secretary of the Army for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Driscoll's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Dan Driscoll and the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jun 30, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (51.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).