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OtherExpires Jun 30, 2026

Dan Driscoll out as Secretary of the Army by June 30?

Probability

36¢

1h

+1.0pp

24h

-0.5pp

24h Vol

$0.00

Liquidity

$87.76

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.0pp 7d
Apr 21, 2026, 01:00Apr 25, 2026, 13:57
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 2 factors
  1. 1

    Resolution-risk signal firing

    Expires in 1570h with open resolution ambiguity.

  2. 2

    Wide spread — 51.0¢

    Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

AI prose summary

 

Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.

Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves

AllTradesSignalsPrice
  • 0s agoResolve

    Market resolves in 1570.0h

    LOW
  • 13:57Signal

    Signal · Resolution risk

    Expires in 1570h with open resolution ambiguity.

    LOW
  • 13:57Price

    Probability up 7.5pp

    to 33¢

    MEDIUM
  • 12:00Price

    Probability down -6.0pp

    to 35¢

    MEDIUM
  • 11:00Price

    Probability down -7.0pp

    to 35¢

    MEDIUM
  • 09:00Price

    Probability up 8.0pp

    to 36¢

    MEDIUM
  • 06:00Price

    Probability up 7.0pp

    to 35¢

    MEDIUM
  • 05:00Price

    Probability up 7.0pp

    to 35¢

    MEDIUM
  • 03:00Price

    Probability up 8.0pp

    to 36¢

    MEDIUM
  • 02:00Price

    Probability up 6.0pp

    to 34¢

    MEDIUM
  • 00:00Price

    Probability up 4.5pp

    to 33¢

    MEDIUM
  • 23:00Price

    Probability up 7.5pp

    to 36¢

    MEDIUM
  • 21:00Price

    Probability up 6.0pp

    to 36¢

    MEDIUM
  • 20:00Price

    Probability down -3.5pp

    to 36¢

    MEDIUM
  • 18:00Price

    Probability down -3.0pp

    to 36¢

    MEDIUM
  • 17:00Price

    Probability down -4.0pp

    to 36¢

    MEDIUM
  • 15:00Price

    Probability down -4.0pp

    to 36¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability down -3.5pp

    to 37¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability down -3.5pp

    to 37¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability down -4.0pp

    to 36¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability down -4.0pp

    to 36¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability down -7.0pp

    to 37¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -6.0pp

    to 37¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -17.5pp

    to 37¢

    MEDIUM
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Market Description

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Dan Driscoll ceases to be United States Secretary of the Army for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Driscoll's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Dan Driscoll and the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Jun 30, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Not specified in metadata
Market type
Binary
  • Wide spread (51.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

¢
Deliver

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