Will Derby County FC win on 2026-04-25?
Probability
100¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+58.0pp
24h Vol
$16.6K
Liquidity
$310.8K
Probability (last 7 days)
+67.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 5 factors- 1
Up 58pp over 24h
Now 100¢; flat in the last hour.
- 2
Light volume — move on a thin book
Only $16.6k traded against $310.8k of visible liquidity (0.05× turnover). Treat the move as low-confidence until volume confirms.
- 3
Resolution-risk signal firing
Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.
- 4
Past expiry — awaiting resolution
Market is past its end date. Any price move now is a settlement / dispute artefact, not new information.
- 5
UMA status: proposed
An open UMA dispute or pending oracle vote can move price independently of underlying odds. Wait for settlement before treating the line as the market view.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
- Wait for the UMA proposal to settle (current status: proposed) — price moves now reflect oracle dynamics, not odds.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 18:55SignalMEDIUM
Resolution risk
Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.
- 14:00ResolveHIGH
Market resolved 5h ago
Price movement
+58.0pp over the last 24h, now 100¢.
Biggest hourly move: +58.0pp at 17:00 (to 100¢).
Show all 23 hour-by-hour ticks
- 18:55 · +58.0pp → 100¢
- 17:00 · +58.0pp → 100¢
- 15:00 · -18.5pp → 24¢
- 21:00 · +4.0pp → 42¢
- 20:00 · +4.5pp → 42¢
- 1d ago · +6.0pp → 43¢
- 1d ago · +5.0pp → 43¢
- 1d ago · +5.0pp → 42¢
- 1d ago · +5.0pp → 42¢
- 1d ago · +5.0pp → 42¢
- 1d ago · +5.0pp → 42¢
- 1d ago · +7.0pp → 42¢
- 1d ago · +8.0pp → 42¢
- 2d ago · +9.0pp → 42¢
- 2d ago · +9.0pp → 42¢
- 2d ago · +6.5pp → 42¢
- 2d ago · +9.0pp → 42¢
- 2d ago · +9.0pp → 42¢
- 2d ago · +8.5pp → 42¢
- 2d ago · +8.5pp → 42¢
- 2d ago · +8.0pp → 41¢
- 2d ago · +8.0pp → 41¢
- 2d ago · +8.5pp → 42¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
Related Markets
8- 100¢+22.4pp
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-25?
Other · Vol $2.2M
- 50¢+1.0pp
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-25?
Other · Vol $1.5M
- 61¢+4.0pp
Seattle Mariners vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Other · Vol $677.9K
- 100¢0.0pp
Boston Red Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 7.5
Other · Vol $542.7K
- 48¢+3.5pp
Athletics vs. Texas Rangers
Other · Vol $490.8K
- 0¢-1.8pp
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 23 to April 25, 2026?
Other · Vol $477.8K
Market Description
In the upcoming game, scheduled for April 25, 2026 If Derby County FC wins, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve "No". This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- Apr 25, 2026
- UMA status
- proposed
- Resolution source
- official statisticsOfficial statisticsefl.com
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- UMA status: proposed
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Market expires Apr 25, 2026 — dispute window active.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.