Israeli forces cross the Litani River again by May 31?

• 01
  Price move

  Up 11pp over 24h

  Now 62¢; -2.5pp in the last hour.

• 02
  Active signal

  Resolution-risk observation firing

  Expires in 22h.

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This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israeli military personnel cross the Litani River in Lebanon between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Israel Daylight Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. “Israeli military personnel” refers to members of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) or any other official military units acting under the authority of the State of Israel. Intelligence or other non-military personnel will not count. A “crossing” will be considered to have occurred if Israeli military personnel are confirmed to have physically traversed the Litani River in Lebanon at any point, including but not limited to by bridge, boat, swimming, wading, or temporary or permanent crossing. Aerial insertion, parachute drops, helicopter landings, or other forms of aerial infiltration that do not involve Israeli military personnel physically traversing the Litani River will not qualify. Mere presence on one bank of the Litani River, without confirmation that Israeli military personnel traversed the river to the opposite bank, will not qualify. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. If the date/time of a qualifying crossing cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting within 48 hours of this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether it was later confirmed to have taken place.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.