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GeopoliticsExpires Apr 13, 2026

Game 1: Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor?

Probability

41¢

1h

+0.0pp

24h

-0.4pp

24h Vol

$0.00

Liquidity

$3.53

Probability (last 7 days)

-0.9pp 7d
Apr 18, 2026, 16:00Apr 25, 2026, 15:13
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 3 factors
  1. 1

    Resolution-risk signal firing

    Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.

  2. 2

    Wide spread — 82.5¢

    Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.

  3. 3

    Past expiry — awaiting resolution

    Market is past its end date. Any price move now is a settlement / dispute artefact, not new information.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

AI prose summary

 

Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.

Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves

AllTradesSignalsPrice
  • 15:13Signal

    Signal · Resolution risk

    Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.

    LOW
  • 20:00Price

    Probability down -13.1pp

    to 29¢

    MEDIUM
  • 18:00Price

    Probability up 4.6pp

    to 46¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability down -3.8pp

    to 42¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability down -6.8pp

    to 42¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -42.1pp

    to 0¢

    MEDIUM
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Market Description

This market is about whether both teams slay the Baron Nashor at least once during Game 1. Baron Nashor is a powerful neutral objective in League of Legends that first spawns at 20:00 game time and respawns 6 minutes after each death, granting the slaying team the Hand of Baron buff. This market will resolve to "Yes" if both Weibo Gaming and Anyone's Legend each slay Baron Nashor at least once during Game 1. This market will resolve to "No" if either team (or both teams) does not slay Baron Nashor during Game 1. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date, this market will resolve to 50-50. If Game 1 is never played due to forfeit, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to 50-50. If Game 1 is not played because the series result has already been determined (e.g., a team clinches the series before Game 1 is needed), this market will resolve to 50-50. If Game 1 begins but is not completed and ends via surrender, this market will resolve based on whether both teams had slain Baron Nashor prior to stoppage. If the condition was not met, this market will resolve to "No". If Game 1 is remade, resolution will be based on the remade game only. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://gol.gg/esports/home. However, if https://gol.gg/esports/home has not published final results within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Apr 13, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
https://gol.gg/esports/homeNews consensus
Market type
Binary
  • Wide spread (82.5¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

¢
Deliver

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