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OtherExpires Jan 1, 2027

Metamask FDV above $700M one day after launch?

Probability

31¢

1h

+0.0pp

24h

+2.9pp

24h Vol

$2.0K

Liquidity

$20.1K

Probability (last 7 days)

+3.7pp 7d
Apr 18, 2026, 17:00Apr 25, 2026, 17:00
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 3 factors
  1. 1

    Up 3pp over 24h

    Now 31¢; flat in the last hour.

  2. 2

    Resolution-risk signal firing

    Expires in 6012h with open resolution ambiguity.

  3. 3

    Thin liquidity

    Only $20.1k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

AI prose summary

Loading prose summary — see the structured breakdown above.

Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.

Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves

AllTradesSignalsPrice
  • 0s agoResolve

    Market resolves in 6012.0h

    LOW
  • 17:01Signal

    Signal · Resolution risk

    Expires in 6012h with open resolution ambiguity.

    LOW
  • 17:00Price

    Probability up 3.7pp

    to 31¢

    MEDIUM
  • 15:00Price

    Probability up 3.8pp

    to 31¢

    MEDIUM
  • 14:00Price

    Probability up 3.6pp

    to 31¢

    MEDIUM
  • 12:00Price

    Probability up 3.1pp

    to 31¢

    MEDIUM
  • 11:00Price

    Probability up 3.0pp

    to 31¢

    MEDIUM
  • 09:00Price

    Probability up 6.3pp

    to 34¢

    MEDIUM
  • 08:00Price

    Probability up 6.7pp

    to 34¢

    MEDIUM
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Market Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Metamask's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Metamask doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

Resolution & Risk

MEDIUM risk
End date
Jan 1, 2027
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Not stated explicitly — read the full market rules below.
Market type
Binary
  • No primary resolution source listed — read the full market rules before acting.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

¢
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