Metamask FDV above $700M one day after launch?
Probability
31¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+2.9pp
24h Vol
$2.0K
Liquidity
$20.1K
Probability (last 7 days)
+3.7pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Up 3pp over 24h
Now 31¢; flat in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 6012h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Thin liquidity
Only $20.1k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Loading prose summary — see the structured breakdown above.
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 6012.0h
- 17:01SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 6012h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.7pp
to 31¢
- 15:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.8pp
to 31¢
- 14:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.6pp
to 31¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.1pp
to 31¢
- 11:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 31¢
- 09:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.3pp
to 34¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.7pp
to 34¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Metamask's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Metamask doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Resolution & Risk
MEDIUM risk- End date
- Jan 1, 2027
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not stated explicitly — read the full market rules below.
- Market type
- Binary
- No primary resolution source listed — read the full market rules before acting.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.
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