Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago Cubs vs. San Diego Padres
Probability
50¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+5.0pp
24h Vol
$602.07
Liquidity
$2.1K
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 1
Up 5pp over 24h
Now 50¢; flat in the last hour.
- 2
Wide spread — 5.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Set an alert if probability drops back below 45¢ — that's where this move would be reversing.
- Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
- Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 182.7h
Price movement
+3.0pp over the last 24h, now 50¢.
Biggest hourly move: +6.5pp at 21:00 (to 56¢).
Show top 8 of 11 hourly moves
- 23:00 · -5.0pp → 44¢
- 21:00 · +6.5pp → 56¢
- 18:00 · +4.5pp → 54¢
- 14:00 · -4.5pp → 45¢
- 1d ago · +5.0pp → 54¢
- 1d ago · +5.0pp → 54¢
- 2d ago · +4.5pp → 54¢
- 2d ago · +4.5pp → 54¢
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
In the upcoming MLB game between the Chicago Cubs and San Diego Padres, scheduled for April 27 at 9:40 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one run is scored in the 1st inning by either the Chicago Cubs or San Diego Padres. This market will resolve to "No" if no runs are scored in the 1st inning by either team. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. To know when a postponed game will be played, please check the home team's schedule on MLB.com for the listed team and look for the game described as a makeup game. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 5, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (5.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.