OtherExpires May 2, 2026

Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cleveland Guardians vs. Toronto Blue Jays

Probability

1h

-43.0pp

24h

-50.0pp

24h Vol

$2.0K

Liquidity

$279.5K

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.0pp 7d
Apr 19, 2026, 16:00Apr 25, 2026, 20:10
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 4 factors
  1. 1

    Down 50pp over 24h

    Now 0¢; -43.0pp in the last hour.

  2. 2

    Momentum signal firing

    Probability moved down 50.0pp in 24h with 0.0× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.

  3. 3

    Resolution-risk signal firing

    Expires in 167h with open resolution ambiguity.

  4. 4

    UMA status: proposed

    An open UMA dispute or pending oracle vote can move price independently of underlying odds. Wait for settlement before treating the line as the market view.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
  • Wait for the UMA proposal to settle (current status: proposed) — price moves now reflect oracle dynamics, not odds.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • 0s agoResolve

    Market resolves in 166.9h

    LOW
  • 20:10Signal

    Momentum down

    Probability moved down 50.0pp in 24h with 0.0× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.

    HIGH
  • 20:10Signal

    Resolution risk

    Expires in 167h with open resolution ambiguity.

    LOW

Price movement

-51.0pp over the last 24h, now 0¢.

Biggest hourly move: -48.9pp at 20:00 (to 0¢).

Show all 22 hour-by-hour ticks
  • 20:00 · -48.9pp → 0¢
  • 19:00 · -10.5pp → 43¢
  • 17:00 · -9.5pp → 44¢
  • 15:00 · -7.5pp → 46¢
  • 14:00 · -7.5pp → 46¢
  • 22:00 · +5.5pp → 54¢
  • 21:00 · +3.0pp → 51¢
  • 1d ago · +3.0pp → 51¢
  • 1d ago · +5.5pp → 54¢
  • 1d ago · +3.5pp → 52¢
  • 1d ago · +3.5pp → 52¢
  • 1d ago · +3.5pp → 52¢
  • 1d ago · +8.5pp → 56¢
  • 2d ago · +8.5pp → 56¢
  • 2d ago · +3.0pp → 51¢
  • 2d ago · +4.5pp → 53¢
  • 2d ago · +4.5pp → 53¢
  • 2d ago · +8.5pp → 56¢
  • 2d ago · +8.5pp → 56¢
  • 2d ago · +8.5pp → 56¢
  • 2d ago · +6.5pp → 55¢
  • 2d ago · +5.5pp → 54¢
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Market Description

In the upcoming MLB game between the Cleveland Guardians and Toronto Blue Jays, scheduled for April 25 at 3:07 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one run is scored in the 1st inning by either the Cleveland Guardians or Toronto Blue Jays. This market will resolve to "No" if no runs are scored in the 1st inning by either team. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. To know when a postponed game will be played, please check the home team's schedule on MLB.com for the listed team and look for the game described as a makeup game. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Resolution & Risk

MEDIUM risk
End date
May 2, 2026
UMA status
proposed
Resolution source
Primary
MLB.com
Type
Official sports result
Market type
Binary
  • UMA status: proposed
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

¢
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