Russell 2000 (RUT) Up or Down on April 27?
Probability
50¢
1h
+5.5pp
24h
+0.0pp
24h Vol
$6.8K
Liquidity
$12.0K
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 2h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 2
Wide spread — 8.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
- 3
Expiry in 2h
Market resolves within 72 hours — the move likely reflects information about the resolution event itself rather than longer-horizon repricing. Verify the resolution source.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
- Set an alert for resolution status changes — expiry is in 2 hours.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 20:00ResolveHIGH
Market resolves in 1.6h
- 18:24SignalMEDIUM
Resolution risk
Expires in 2h with open resolution ambiguity.
Price movement
+1.5pp over the last 24h, now 52¢.
Biggest hourly move: +9.0pp at 14:00 (to 63¢).
Show top 8 of 9 hourly moves
- 18:00 · -6.0pp → 48¢
- 17:00 · -6.5pp → 47¢
- 14:00 · +9.0pp → 63¢
- 12:00 · -3.5pp → 50¢
- 10:00 · -3.5pp → 50¢
- 08:00 · -3.5pp → 50¢
- 07:00 · -3.5pp → 50¢
- 01:00 · -4.5pp → 46¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Up" if the official Russell 2000 Index closing price for Russell 2000 (RUT) on Monday, April 27, 2026 is higher than the official Russell 2000 Index closing price for RUT on the most recent prior trading day. This market will resolve to "Down" if the official Russell 2000 Index closing price for Russell 2000 (RUT) on Monday, April 27, 2026 is lower than the official Russell 2000 Index closing price for RUT on the most recent prior trading day. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless that Friday were a market holiday, in which case it would refer to Thursday, or the next most recent trading day. If the two specified closing prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. Note that all figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding. If RUT does not trade at all during the regular session, the market will resolve 50-50. If either of the relevant days are shortened (for example, due to a market holiday schedule), the official closing price published by Russell 2000 Index for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If either of the relevant days have no official closing price (for example, due to a trading halt into the market close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price. The resolution source for this market is the Wall Street Journal, specifically the Close values published by the WSJ under "Historical Prices". US: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks EMEA: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/emea ASIA: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/asia
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- Apr 27, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- Market expires Apr 27, 2026 — dispute window active.
- Wide spread (8.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.