Will Toulouse win?
Probability
61¢
1h
-0.2pp
24h
-28.7pp
24h Vol
$110.06
Liquidity
$5.12
Probability (last 7 days)
+10.3pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Down 29pp over 24h
Now 61¢; -0.2pp in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 162h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Wide spread — 70.8¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 162.1h
- 20:56SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Expires in 162h with open resolution ambiguity.
Price movement
-27.4pp over the last 24h, now 62¢.
Biggest hourly move: +41.0pp at 2d ago (to 90¢).
Show all 34 hour-by-hour ticks
- 20:56 · -5.4pp → 62¢
- 19:00 · -10.0pp → 57¢
- 17:00 · -9.5pp → 58¢
- 15:00 · -17.5pp → 50¢
- 14:00 · +24.3pp → 92¢
- 12:00 · +25.2pp → 92¢
- 11:00 · +27.0pp → 94¢
- 09:00 · +23.0pp → 90¢
- 08:00 · +23.0pp → 90¢
- 06:00 · +23.0pp → 89¢
- 05:00 · +23.5pp → 90¢
- 03:00 · +23.5pp → 90¢
- 02:00 · +23.5pp → 90¢
- 00:00 · +23.5pp → 90¢
- 23:00 · +23.0pp → 89¢
- 21:00 · +24.0pp → 90¢
- 1d ago · +24.0pp → 90¢
- 1d ago · +24.0pp → 89¢
- 1d ago · +24.5pp → 90¢
- 1d ago · +24.5pp → 90¢
- 1d ago · +24.0pp → 90¢
- 1d ago · +24.0pp → 90¢
- 1d ago · +24.0pp → 90¢
- 1d ago · +41.0pp → 90¢
- 2d ago · +41.0pp → 90¢
- 2d ago · +40.5pp → 90¢
- 2d ago · +39.5pp → 90¢
- 2d ago · +39.5pp → 90¢
- 2d ago · +39.5pp → 90¢
- 2d ago · +39.5pp → 90¢
- 2d ago · +39.0pp → 90¢
- 2d ago · +39.5pp → 90¢
- 2d ago · +39.5pp → 90¢
- 2d ago · +39.5pp → 90¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
Related Markets
8- 100¢+22.4pp
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-25?
Other · Vol $2.2M
- 1¢-0.1pp
Starmer out by April 30, 2026?
Other · Vol $371.4K
- 100¢+54.4pp
Will Valencia CF win on 2026-04-25?
Other · Vol $320.8K
- 4¢0.0pp
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?
Other · Vol $289.3K
- 84¢-3.0pp
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch?
Other · Vol $247.0K
- 0¢-2.9pp
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026?
Other · Vol $240.2K
Market Description
In the upcoming game, scheduled for April 25 2026 If Toulouse wins, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve to "No". This market refers only to the outcome when the ball becomes dead after 80 minutes of regular play.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 2, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primary
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Wide spread (70.8¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.