Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?
Probability
31¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+1.0pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$1.1K
Probability (last 7 days)
-19.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Heuristic summary, generated from the public market metrics above: probability movement, volume, liquidity, spread, signals, and resolution status.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveHIGH
Market resolves in 25.2h
- 02:49SignalMEDIUM
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 25h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 32¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.5pp
to 30¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.0pp
to 29¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.5pp
to 30¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.0pp
to 29¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.0pp
to 29¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 30¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 30¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.5pp
to 28¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 30¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -20.5pp
to 29¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -20.0pp
to 30¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -20.5pp
to 29¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -20.5pp
to 29¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -20.0pp
to 30¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -21.0pp
to 28¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -20.5pp
to 29¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -20.5pp
to 29¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -20.5pp
to 29¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -20.0pp
to 30¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -20.0pp
to 30¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -20.0pp
to 30¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -20.0pp
to 30¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -20.0pp
to 30¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -20.0pp
to 30¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -20.0pp
to 30¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -20.5pp
to 29¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the fight between Alexander Hernandez and Rafa Garcia at UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal, scheduled for April 25, 2026, ends by KO or TKO, including referee stoppage, doctor stoppage, or corner stoppage. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." If the fight ends in a draw or by disqualification (either fighter), it will resolve "No." If the bout is ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond May 9, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- Apr 26, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- https://www.ufc.com/events
- Market type
- Binary
- Market expires Apr 26, 2026 — dispute window active.
- Wide spread (33.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).
Top Holders
No holder data from the Data API.