Will the fight be won by submission?

1. 1

   Resolution-risk signal firing

   Expires in 11h with open resolution ambiguity.

2. 2

   Wide spread — 29.0¢

   Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.

3. 3

   Expiry in 11h

   Market resolves within 72 hours — the move likely reflects information about the resolution event itself rather than longer-horizon repricing. Verify the resolution source.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.

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This market will resolve to "Yes" if the fight between Alexander Hernandez and Rafa Garcia at UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal, scheduled for April 25, 2026, ends by submission, including tapout, verbal submission, or technical submission (referee stoppage due to a submission hold). Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." If the fight ends in a draw or by disqualification (either fighter), it will resolve "No." If the bout is ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond May 9, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.