U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Taiwan" before 2027?
Probability
19¢
1h
+0.3pp
24h
+0.1pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$24.5K
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 5981h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 2
Thin liquidity
Only $24.5k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
- 3
UMA status: disputed
An open UMA dispute or pending oracle vote can move price independently of underlying odds. Wait for settlement before treating the line as the market view.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
- Wait for the UMA proposal to settle (current status: disputed) — price moves now reflect oracle dynamics, not odds.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 5981.2h
- 18:47SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Expires in 5981h with open resolution ambiguity.
Price movement
-0.2pp over the last 24h, now 19¢.
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a free trade agreement with the specified country or entity becomes law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This includes both agreements that become law through Senate ratification and Presidential approval, or through the enactment of a Congressional-Executive Agreement signed into law by the President. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution & Risk
MEDIUM risk- End date
- Dec 31, 2026
- UMA status
- disputed
- Resolution source
- consensus of credible reportingNews consensusextracted · medium
- Market type
- Binary
- UMA status: disputed
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.