U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Taiwan" before 2027?
Probability
18¢
1h
-0.3pp
24h
+0.4pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$3.7K
Canonical status
confidence: highSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Upstream UMA resolution status is 'disputed'.
Resolution is contested. Do not treat the current price as final until UMA settles.
Resolution & Risk
MEDIUM risk- End date
- Dec 31, 2026
- UMA status
- disputed
- Resolution source
- Primaryconsensus of credible reportingTypeNews consensusConfidenceextracted · medium
- Market type
- Binary
- UMA status: disputed
- Wide spread (18.8¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Probability (last 7 days)
+3.4pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 01Active signal
Resolution-risk observation firing
UMA status is disputed and the spread is extremely wide. Verify the resolution source before treating price as the market view.
- 02Spread cost
Wide spread — 18.8¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable advantage. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
- Wait for the UMA proposal to settle (current status: disputed) — price moves now reflect oracle dynamics, not odds.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
MEDIUM risk- End date
- Dec 31, 2026
- UMA status
- disputed
- Resolution source
- Primaryconsensus of credible reportingTypeNews consensusConfidenceextracted · medium
- Market type
- Binary
- UMA status: disputed
- Wide spread (18.8¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Verification Brief
A guided checklist for what must be proven before this market is treated as reliable context.
The market is in an oracle/review state where proposal, dispute, and final settlement evidence matter more than the displayed price.
Create trust-state alertVerification goal
Map resolution-relevant sources to the exact criteria needed to avoid misreading price as settlement.
What needs proof
Primary source
requiredConfirm the primary news consensus source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question.
Current evidence: consensus of credible reporting
Contract wording
requiredExtract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule.
Settlement state
requiredCheck whether the market is still live, expired-unresolved, UMA pending, disputed, or officially resolved.
Current evidence: UMA disputed
Orrery verification task U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Taiwan" before 2027? State: UMA disputed — oracle review Need sources for: 1. Primary source: Confirm the primary news consensus source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question. 2. Contract wording: Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule. 3. Settlement state: Check whether the market is still live, expired-unresolved, UMA pending, disputed, or officially resolved. Drop only durable links that map to one criterion. Research only. Not trade advice.
Orrery verification brief U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Taiwan" before 2027? State: oracle review Verify: Primary source + Contract wording Price is not settlement. Research only. Not trade advice.
Market link goes in reply
A controlled loop for durable sources. Every source must answer one criterion from this Verification Brief.
Sources
0
Criteria covered
0
Reviewed
0
Awaiting review
0
Submit a source mapped to a criterion
Recent source checks
Pilot audit summary
Research only · Not trade advice · Every source maps to one criterion
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- Dec 31, 00:00 UTCScheduled resolutionLOW
Market resolves in 4790.3h
- 09:44SignalLOW
Resolution risk
UMA status is disputed and the spread is extremely wide. Verify the resolution source before treating price as the market view.
Price movement
+0.4pp over the last 24h, now 18¢.
Biggest hourly move: +5.0pp at Jun 10, 03:00 UTC (to 20¢).
Show top 8 of 24 hourly moves
- 03:00 · +4.0pp → 19¢
- 02:00 · +4.1pp → 19¢
- 23:00 · +4.2pp → 19¢
- Jun 12, 14:00 UTC · -4.8pp → 15¢
- Jun 12, 13:00 UTC · -4.5pp → 15¢
- Jun 11, 17:00 UTC · +4.8pp → 20¢
- Jun 10, 03:00 UTC · +5.0pp → 20¢
- Jun 10, 01:00 UTC · +4.3pp → 20¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a free trade agreement with the specified country or entity becomes law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This includes both agreements that become law through Senate ratification and Presidential approval, or through the enactment of a Congressional-Executive Agreement signed into law by the President. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Why this category?
confidence: highCategory
Source
Matched term
signed into lawReason
Legislation signed into law — Politics.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Taiwan" before 2027?"?
As of Sun, 14 Jun 2026 09:44:50 GMT, YES is priced at 18% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +0.4pp in the last 24 hours, -0.3pp in the last hour, and +3.4pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by Dec 31, 2026 (2026-12-31T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from UMA optimistic oracle (disputed).
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from UMA optimistic oracle (disputed). Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$0.00 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $32.1K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $3.7K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 18.8¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
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