PoliticsMulti-outcomeExpires Jun 2, 2026
Creator

Will Adam Miller finish second in the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?

Probability

2¢

1h

-0.1pp

24h

-20.6pp

24h Vol

$422.04

Liquidity

$13.4K

Canonical status

confidence: high

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

PINNED NO

Reason

YES price is near 0¢ but the market has not been officially resolved.

Treat as effectively priced-out, not settled. The market is still live until expiry.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Jun 2, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
consensus of credible reporting
Type
News consensus
Confidence
extracted · medium
Market type
Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
  • Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.0pp 7d
1007550250
2¢
May 14, 2026, 18:00 UTCMay 15, 2026, 19:18 UTC
updated 19:19:00 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-05-15T19-19Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 2 factors
  • 01
    Price move

    Down 21pp over 24h

    Now 2¢; -0.1pp in the last hour.

  • 02
    Liquidity

    Thin liquidity

    Only $13.4k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

What to track next

  • Set an alert if probability recovers above 7¢ — that's where this move would be reversing.
  • Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
  • Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • Jun 2, 00:00 UTCScheduled resolution

    Market resolves in 412.7h

    LOW

Price movement

-20.6pp over the last 24h, now 2¢.

updated 19:19:00 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

Open whale feedBrowse related marketsAlert me on the next trade
updated 19:19:00 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

13
Same eventLA Mayoral Election: First Round Second Place?
Category · Politics

Market Description

The 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election will be held on June 2, 2026, to elect the mayor of Los Angeles, California. If no candidate receives a majority of the vote, a runoff election will be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the city and county of Los Angeles.

Why this category?

confidence: high

Category

Politics

Source

Manual override (pattern match)

Matched term

mayoral election

Reason

Mayoral / city-election markets are Politics. Also guards against the esports LEC token inside 'election'.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will Adam Miller finish second in the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?"?

As of Fri, 15 May 2026 19:19:00 GMT, YES is priced at 2% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -20.6pp in the last 24 hours, -0.1pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by Jun 2, 2026 (2026-06-02T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$422.04 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $535.71. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $13.4K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 1.6¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

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Top Holders

10 wallets
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