Thoughtful-Estuary
0x34d8b93ef955ccc3fccdc393ae9247a4dc9bb9d4
Wallet digest
Activity score
89/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
37
Open notional
$1.1K
Total PnL
$-27.30
Realised
$0.50
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 37- NO
Kash Patel out by June 30?
665 shares @ 63.0¢·now 62.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$412.15
$-6.65
- NO
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?
465 shares @ 78.0¢·now 76.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$353.26
$-9.30
- NO
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?
246 shares @ 91.2¢·now 90.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$222.62
$-1.72
- OVER
Newcastle United Jets FC vs. Sydney FC: O/U 3.5
50 shares @ 40.5¢·now 39.5¢·exp May 16, 2026$19.75
$-0.50
- NO
Will Chicago Cubs win the 2026 NL Central title?
25 shares @ 47.0¢·now 45.5¢·exp Oct 11, 2026$11.38
$-0.38
- NO
Will Andrea Martella win the 2026 Venice mayoral election?
50 shares @ 23.0¢·now 18.0¢·exp May 25, 2026$9.00
$-2.50
- YES
Will Marine Tondelier be the joint left nominee for the 2027 French presidential election?
25 shares @ 30.0¢·now 28.5¢·exp Oct 11, 2026$7.12
$-0.38
- NO
Will AJ Dybantsa be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft?
25 shares @ 26.0¢·now 26.5¢·exp Jun 25, 2026$6.63
$0.13
- YES
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?
25 shares @ 24.0¢·now 24.5¢·exp Jun 2, 2026$6.13
$0.13
- YES
Will Darryn Peterson be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft?
25 shares @ 24.0¢·now 23.5¢·exp Jun 25, 2026$5.88
$-0.13
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYMiguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?$5.25May 15, 17:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Austin Beutner finish second in the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?$0.13May 15, 17:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Austin Beutner finish second in the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?$0.25May 15, 17:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Austin Beutner finish second in the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?$0.28May 15, 17:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Șerban Matei be the next Prime Minister of Romania?$5.60May 15, 17:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Rick Caruso finish second in the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?$0.33May 15, 17:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Munetaka Murakami win the 2026 AL Rookie of the Year award?$3.58May 15, 17:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control On)?$5.25May 15, 17:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Falcons win PGL Astana 2026?$3.72May 15, 15:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill AJ Dybantsa be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft?$6.50May 15, 15:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Andrea Martella win the 2026 Venice mayoral election?$4.25May 15, 15:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Andrea Martella win the 2026 Venice mayoral election?$7.25May 15, 15:57 UTC
- TRADEBUY MVP Fight Night: Nate Diaz vs. Mike Perry$2.94May 15, 15:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Falcons win PGL Astana 2026?$0.53May 15, 15:46 UTC
- TRADESELLAl Taawoun Saudi Club vs. Al Riyadh Saudi Club: O/U 1.5$1.01May 15, 15:44 UTC
- TRADESELLKash Patel out by June 30?$22.20May 15, 15:34 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Andrea Martella win the 2026 Venice mayoral election?$12.00May 15, 15:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Monica Rodriguez finish second in the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?$0.24May 15, 15:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Monica Rodriguez finish second in the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?$0.25May 15, 15:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Adam Miller finish second in the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?$0.30May 15, 15:21 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $28.24
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 15, 14:08 UTC
- Last active
- May 15, 17:46 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 1 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".