Will Alycia Gruenhagen be the Republican nominee for Senate in Minnesota?
Probability
1¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
-0.3pp
24h Vol
$0.32
Liquidity
$9.0K
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.2pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 1
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 2572h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 2
Thin liquidity
Only $9.0k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 2571.7h
- 20:17SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Expires in 2572h with open resolution ambiguity.
Price movement
-0.9pp over the last 24h, now 1¢.
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Minnesota. If no 2026 Minnesota Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Minnesota Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Aug 11, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- PrimarynatoTypeOfficial government sourceConfidenceextracted · high
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.