Will Anas Sarwar be the next First Minister of Scotland following the 2026 Scottish parliamentary elections?

• 01
  Price move

  Down 2pp over 24h

  Now 4¢; +1.6pp in the last hour.

• 02
  Active signal

  Resolution-risk signal firing

  Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.

• 03
  Spread cost

  Wide spread — 6.7¢

  Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Scotland on May 7, 2026. This market will resolve to the individual who is formally appointed as First Minister of Scotland following the 2026 Scottish parliamentary elections. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally appointed as First Minister following the 2026 Scottish parliamentary elections. Any interim or caretaker head of government will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such First Minister is appointed by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Scotland; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.