Will Ross Greer be the next First Minister of Scotland following the 2026 Scottish parliamentary elections?

1. 1

   Resolution-risk signal firing

   Expires in 272h with open resolution ambiguity.

2. 2

   Thin liquidity

   Only $5.0k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

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Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Scotland on May 7, 2026. This market will resolve to the individual who is formally appointed as First Minister of Scotland following the 2026 Scottish parliamentary elections. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally appointed as First Minister following the 2026 Scottish parliamentary elections. Any interim or caretaker head of government will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such First Minister is appointed by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Scotland; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.