Will Anthropic provide Mythos to the US government by May 31, 2026?

• 01
  Price move

  Up 26pp over 24h

  Now 99¢; +5.3pp in the last hour.

• 02
  Active signal

  Resolution-risk signal firing

  UMA dispute is active — settlement uncertainty, not new directional information.

• 03
  Liquidity

  Thin liquidity

  Only $23.3k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

• 04
  UMA status

  UMA status: proposed

  An open UMA dispute or pending oracle vote can move price independently of underlying odds. Wait for settlement before treating the line as the market view.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Anthropic grants the United States federal government access to Claude Mythos (including Mythos Preview) by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Granting access to Claude Mythos refers to Anthropic allowing any department, agency, or subset of the United States federal government to use Claude Mythos for any purpose. An official announcement from either Anthropic or the United States federal government, that Anthropic has agreed to grant the United States federal government access to Claude Mythos, will be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether access begins after the resolution date. Suggestions, negotiations, or other statements that do not constitute granting access will not qualify. A consensus of credible reporting that Anthropic has agreed to grant access to Claude Mythos to the United States federal government will also suffice. “Claude Mythos” refers to a model named “Claude Mythos” (e.g., Claude Mythos Preview, Claude Mythos 1, Claude Mythos X) or a model confirmed by Anthropic or by a consensus of credible reporting to be the same model referenced in the March 26, 2026 leak. Models such as Claude Haiku, Sonnet, Opus 4.7/5.0 or similar will not qualify unless explicitly confirmed to be the same model referenced in the leak. General public availability of a Claude Mythos model without a qualifying announcement or confirmation of access being granted will not alone suffice. The primary resolution sources will be official information from Anthropic and the United States federal government, and a consensus of credible reporting.