Will Antonio Tajani be the next Prime Minister of Italy?
Probability
2¢
1h
-0.1pp
24h
+0.1pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$5.3K
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 1 factor- 1
Thin liquidity
Only $5.3k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Set an alert at the next ±5pp probability move so you find out before the next leg.
- Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
- Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 23522.3h
Price movement
+0.1pp over the last 24h, now 2¢.
Biggest hourly move: -43.5pp at 2d ago (to 3¢).
Show top 8 of 27 hourly moves
- 02:00 · -8.5pp → 2¢
- 00:00 · -9.8pp → 1¢
- 22:00 · -9.1pp → 1¢
- 1d ago · -9.6pp → 1¢
- 1d ago · -9.6pp → 1¢
- 1d ago · -8.1pp → 3¢
- 1d ago · -8.1pp → 3¢
- 2d ago · -43.5pp → 3¢
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Italy by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET. To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Italy. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister takes office by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Italy; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Dec 31, 2028
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- PrimaryOfficial government informationTypeOfficial government sourceConfidenceextracted · high
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.