Will Mario Draghi be the next Prime Minister of Italy?
Probability
5¢
1h
-0.5pp
24h
-1.0pp
24h Vol
$24.04
Liquidity
$20.7K
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Down 1pp over 24h
Now 5¢; -0.5pp in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 23526h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Thin liquidity
Only $20.7k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 23526.1h
- 17:52SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Expires in 23526h with open resolution ambiguity.
Price movement
-1.0pp over the last 24h, now 5¢.
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
Related Markets
14- 56¢-2.5pp
Will Giorgia Meloni be the next Prime Minister of Italy?
Other · Vol $210.01
- 10¢-2.0pp
Will Giuseppe Conte be the next Prime Minister of Italy?
Other · Vol $24.06
- 2¢-0.5pp
Will Matteo Salvini be the next Prime Minister of Italy?
Other · Vol $78.14
- 3¢+1.2pp
Will Roberto Vannacci be the next Prime Minister of Italy?
Other · Vol $177.78
- 50¢0.0pp
Will Person D be the next Prime Minister of Italy?
Other · Vol $0.00
- 50¢0.0pp
Will Person F be the next Prime Minister of Italy?
Other · Vol $0.00
- 11¢+1.0pp
Will Elly Schlein be the next Prime Minister of Italy?
Other · Vol $106.48
- 2¢-1.3pp
Will Antonio Tajani be the next Prime Minister of Italy?
Other · Vol $24.02
- 98¢+20.0pp
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-25?
Other · Vol $2.1M
- 92¢0.0pp
Boston Red Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 7.5
Other · Vol $492.3K
- 0¢-1.5pp
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 23 to April 25, 2026?
Other · Vol $475.9K
- 100¢+49.5pp
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-04-25?
Other · Vol $473.7K
- 100¢+59.5pp
Will 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 win on 2026-04-25?
Other · Vol $419.5K
- 1¢-0.1pp
Starmer out by April 30, 2026?
Other · Vol $370.0K
Market Description
This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Italy by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET. To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Italy. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister takes office by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Italy; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Dec 31, 2028
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Official government informationOfficial government sourceextracted · high
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.