Will Bayer Leverkusen qualify for the League Phase of the 2026-27 UEFA Conference League?
Probability
35¢
1h
+4.0pp
24h
-18.0pp
24h Vol
$209.94
Liquidity
$13.79
Probability (last 7 days)
-18.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Down 18pp over 24h
Now 35¢; +4.0pp in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 3058h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Wide spread — 66.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 3058.0h
- 13:59SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 3058h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 13:59PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.5pp
to 48¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -18.0pp
to 36¢
- 11:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -21.0pp
to 33¢
- 09:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -19.0pp
to 35¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -22.0pp
to 32¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -16.0pp
to 38¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -18.5pp
to 35¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -13.0pp
to 41¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -9.5pp
to 44¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed team clinches a league phase spot in the 2026-27 Conference League per UEFA rules. Otherwise, the associated market will resolve to "No". If at any point it becomes impossible for the listed team to clinch a league phase spot in the 2026-27 Conference League (e.g. they cannot mathematically achieve a Conference League place, cannot qualify through play in European or cup competitions, etc.), the associated market will resolve to "No". If the 2025-26 Bundesliga season is cancelled, postponed after August 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET, or the teams that qualified for the 2026-27 Conference League have not been officially confirmed by UEFA within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be official information from UEFA and/or the Bundesliga; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Aug 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (66.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).