Will between 19 and 21 albums be ranked #1 on the Billboard 200 in 2026?
Probability
17¢
1h
-1.7pp
24h
-5.1pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$243.04
Probability (last 7 days)
-8.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Down 5pp over 24h
Now 17¢; -1.7pp in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 5984h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Wide spread — 31.2¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 5984.1h
- 15:51SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 5984h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 15:51PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.5pp
to 17¢
- 11:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.2pp
to 17¢
- 09:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.9pp
to 19¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.5pp
to 22¢
- 23:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.3pp
to 18¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.7pp
to 22¢
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 22¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.2pp
to 23¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.4pp
to 23¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.9pp
to 23¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.3pp
to 23¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.1pp
to 20¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.0pp
to 18¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.0pp
to 20¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.5pp
to 21¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve according to the number of albums that are ranked number 1 on any official weekly Billboard 200 albums chart released for a data collection reference period entirely between January 1 and December 31, 2026. Each specific album may only count once, regardless of the number times it reaches the number 1 spot. Different editions of the same album will be considered to be different specific albums if they contain different tracklists. Billboard updates the Billboard 200 albums chart each Tuesday (with adjusted release schedules on some holiday weeks), reflecting data from the previous week (Friday-Thursday). Each Billboard chart is then titled “Week of (date of the upcoming Saturday)”. The first Billboard 200 album chart relevant to this market will be the chart titled “Week of January 17, 2026” for a data collection reference period of January 2-8, 2026. The final Billboard 200 album chart relevant to this market will be the Chart titled “Week of January 9, 2027” for a data collection reference period of December 25-31, 2026. All officially published Billboard 200 Albums charts will be treated as final. Revisions made after the release of a Billboard 200 album chart will not be considered. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official weekly Billboard 200 albums chart, published each week at https://www.billboard.com/charts/billboard-200/ and through other official Billboard channels; however, a consensus of credible reporting on albums that reached number 1 on the Billboard 200 within this market's timeframe may also be used.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Dec 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Wide spread (31.2¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).