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EntertainmentMulti-outcomeExpires Dec 31, 2026

Will between 22 and 24 albums be ranked #1 on the Billboard 200 in 2026?

Probability

21¢

1h

-2.0pp

24h

-0.5pp

24h Vol

$0.00

Liquidity

$564.61

Probability (last 7 days)

-3.0pp 7d
Apr 18, 2026, 18:00Apr 25, 2026, 15:51
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 2 factors
  1. 1

    Resolution-risk signal firing

    Expires in 5984h with open resolution ambiguity.

  2. 2

    Wide spread — 28.0¢

    Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

AI prose summary

 

Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.

Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves

AllTradesSignalsPrice
  • 0s agoResolve

    Market resolves in 5984.1h

    LOW
  • 15:51Signal

    Signal · Resolution risk

    Expires in 5984h with open resolution ambiguity.

    LOW
  • 12:00Price

    Probability up 3.0pp

    to 26¢

    MEDIUM
  • 08:00Price

    Probability up 6.5pp

    to 30¢

    MEDIUM
  • 20:00Price

    Probability up 3.5pp

    to 28¢

    MEDIUM
  • 19:00Price

    Probability down -3.5pp

    to 23¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability down -5.0pp

    to 23¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability down -4.0pp

    to 21¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability down -3.0pp

    to 21¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability down -3.0pp

    to 21¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 5.0pp

    to 24¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 3.5pp

    to 21¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 6.0pp

    to 28¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 7.0pp

    to 31¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 5.0pp

    to 28¢

    MEDIUM
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Market Description

This market will resolve according to the number of albums that are ranked number 1 on any official weekly Billboard 200 albums chart released for a data collection reference period entirely between January 1 and December 31, 2026. Each specific album may only count once, regardless of the number times it reaches the number 1 spot. Different editions of the same album will be considered to be different specific albums if they contain different tracklists. Billboard updates the Billboard 200 albums chart each Tuesday (with adjusted release schedules on some holiday weeks), reflecting data from the previous week (Friday-Thursday). Each Billboard chart is then titled “Week of (date of the upcoming Saturday)”. The first Billboard 200 album chart relevant to this market will be the chart titled “Week of January 17, 2026” for a data collection reference period of January 2-8, 2026. The final Billboard 200 album chart relevant to this market will be the Chart titled “Week of January 9, 2027” for a data collection reference period of December 25-31, 2026. All officially published Billboard 200 Albums charts will be treated as final. Revisions made after the release of a Billboard 200 album chart will not be considered. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official weekly Billboard 200 albums chart, published each week at https://www.billboard.com/charts/billboard-200/ and through other official Billboard channels; however, a consensus of credible reporting on albums that reached number 1 on the Billboard 200 within this market's timeframe may also be used.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Dec 31, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Not specified in metadata
Market type
Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
  • Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
  • Wide spread (28.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

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