Will at least 25 albums be ranked #1 on the Billboard 200 in 2026?
Probability
77¢
1h
+0.5pp
24h
+0.0pp
24h Vol
$10.99
Liquidity
$102.65
Probability (last 7 days)
+11.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 1
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 5980h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 2
Wide spread — 26.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 5980.3h
- 19:43SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Expires in 5980h with open resolution ambiguity.
Price movement
+0.5pp over the last 24h, now 77¢.
Biggest hourly move: +7.5pp at 1d ago (to 78¢).
Show all 16 hour-by-hour ticks
- 12:00 · -6.0pp → 71¢
- 11:00 · -6.0pp → 71¢
- 07:00 · +7.0pp → 78¢
- 04:00 · +3.0pp → 78¢
- 02:00 · -3.0pp → 74¢
- 1d ago · +6.0pp → 76¢
- 1d ago · +7.0pp → 77¢
- 1d ago · +7.5pp → 78¢
- 1d ago · +6.5pp → 77¢
- 2d ago · +5.0pp → 77¢
- 2d ago · +4.0pp → 77¢
- 2d ago · +3.0pp → 77¢
- 2d ago · +4.5pp → 74¢
- 2d ago · +4.0pp → 74¢
- 2d ago · +5.0pp → 74¢
- 2d ago · +5.5pp → 72¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve according to the number of albums that are ranked number 1 on any official weekly Billboard 200 albums chart released for a data collection reference period entirely between January 1 and December 31, 2026. Each specific album may only count once, regardless of the number times it reaches the number 1 spot. Different editions of the same album will be considered to be different specific albums if they contain different tracklists. Billboard updates the Billboard 200 albums chart each Tuesday (with adjusted release schedules on some holiday weeks), reflecting data from the previous week (Friday-Thursday). Each Billboard chart is then titled “Week of (date of the upcoming Saturday)”. The first Billboard 200 album chart relevant to this market will be the chart titled “Week of January 17, 2026” for a data collection reference period of January 2-8, 2026. The final Billboard 200 album chart relevant to this market will be the Chart titled “Week of January 9, 2027” for a data collection reference period of December 25-31, 2026. All officially published Billboard 200 Albums charts will be treated as final. Revisions made after the release of a Billboard 200 album chart will not be considered. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official weekly Billboard 200 albums chart, published each week at https://www.billboard.com/charts/billboard-200/ and through other official Billboard channels; however, a consensus of credible reporting on albums that reached number 1 on the Billboard 200 within this market's timeframe may also be used.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Dec 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- consensus of credible reportingNews consensusextracted · mediumbillboard.com
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Wide spread (26.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.