Will Derrick Lewis be the UFC Heavyweight Champion on December 31, 2026?
Probability
28¢
1h
+1.2pp
24h
+17.0pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$539.49
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.1pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Up 17pp over 24h
Now 28¢; +1.2pp in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 5982h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Wide spread — 51.5¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 5982.2h
- 17:50SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Expires in 5982h with open resolution ambiguity.
Price movement
+16.3pp over the last 24h, now 28¢.
Biggest hourly move: +17.5pp at 08:00 (to 28¢).
Show all 57 hour-by-hour ticks
- 17:00 · +16.5pp → 27¢
- 16:00 · +17.2pp → 28¢
- 15:00 · +16.8pp → 27¢
- 13:00 · +17.4pp → 28¢
- 12:00 · +17.3pp → 28¢
- 10:00 · +17.1pp → 28¢
- 09:00 · +16.8pp → 27¢
- 08:00 · +17.5pp → 28¢
- 06:00 · +16.7pp → 27¢
- 05:00 · +16.6pp → 27¢
- 03:00 · +17.1pp → 28¢
- 02:00 · +17.0pp → 28¢
- 1d ago · -16.9pp → 11¢
- 1d ago · -16.6pp → 11¢
- 1d ago · -16.9pp → 11¢
- 1d ago · -16.6pp → 11¢
- 1d ago · -16.9pp → 11¢
- 2d ago · -16.8pp → 11¢
- 2d ago · -16.9pp → 11¢
- 2d ago · -16.9pp → 11¢
- 2d ago · -16.8pp → 11¢
- 2d ago · -17.1pp → 11¢
- 2d ago · -17.1pp → 11¢
- 2d ago · -17.1pp → 11¢
- 2d ago · -17.0pp → 11¢
- 2d ago · -17.0pp → 11¢
- 2d ago · -17.2pp → 11¢
- 2d ago · -16.8pp → 11¢
- 2d ago · -17.2pp → 11¢
- 2d ago · -17.2pp → 11¢
- 2d ago · -17.2pp → 11¢
- 2d ago · -17.0pp → 11¢
- 2d ago · -17.2pp → 11¢
- 3d ago · -17.2pp → 11¢
- 3d ago · -17.4pp → 11¢
- 3d ago · -17.4pp → 11¢
- 3d ago · -17.4pp → 11¢
- 3d ago · -17.4pp → 11¢
- 3d ago · -17.4pp → 11¢
- 3d ago · -17.4pp → 11¢
- 3d ago · -17.4pp → 11¢
- 3d ago · -17.4pp → 11¢
- 3d ago · -17.4pp → 11¢
- 3d ago · -17.4pp → 11¢
- 3d ago · -17.4pp → 11¢
- 3d ago · -17.4pp → 11¢
- 3d ago · -17.4pp → 11¢
- 3d ago · -17.4pp → 11¢
- 3d ago · -17.4pp → 11¢
- 3d ago · -17.4pp → 11¢
- 3d ago · -17.4pp → 11¢
- 3d ago · -17.4pp → 11¢
- 4d ago · -17.4pp → 11¢
- 4d ago · -17.4pp → 11¢
- 4d ago · -17.4pp → 11¢
- 4d ago · -17.4pp → 11¢
- 4d ago · -17.4pp → 11¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve according to the official UFC Heavyweight division champion on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. Only official UFC division champions will count. Interim champions will not count. If the relevant belt is vacant at this market’s check time, or there is otherwise no champion in the specified division, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/athletes).
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Dec 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- to the official UFC Heavyweight division champion on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ETAmbiguous wordingextracted · lowufc.com
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Wide spread (51.5¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.