Will Élisabeth Borne announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026?

1. 1

   Up 17pp over 24h

   Now 43¢; -3.5pp in the last hour.

2. 2

   Resolution-risk signal firing

   Expires in 8698h with open resolution ambiguity.

3. 3

   Wide spread — 73.0¢

   Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.

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The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held in April 2027. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual publicly announces that they are running for President in the 2027 French presidential election by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement by the listed individual of their candidacy will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they actually formally file their candidacy, or whether they actually appear on the ballot. Statements that merely indicate the listed individual is considering a run, is expected to run, or is being discussed as a possible candidate will not be sufficient. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the listed individual; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.