Will Kamala Harris be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee?
Probability
4¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+0.0pp
24h Vol
$59.13
Liquidity
$24.3K
Probability (last 7 days)
-11.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 1 factor- 1
Wide spread — 6.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Set an alert at the next ±5pp probability move so you find out before the next leg.
- Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
- Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 20088.5h
Price movement
+0.0pp over the last 24h, now 4¢.
Biggest hourly move: -10.5pp at 4d ago (to 5¢).
Show top 8 of 19 hourly moves
- 3d ago · -10.5pp → 5¢
- 3d ago · -10.5pp → 5¢
- 3d ago · -10.5pp → 5¢
- 3d ago · -10.5pp → 5¢
- 3d ago · -10.5pp → 5¢
- 4d ago · -10.5pp → 5¢
- 4d ago · -10.5pp → 5¢
- 4d ago · -10.5pp → 5¢
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
Related Markets
14- 5¢-5.0pp
Will Gavin Newsom be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee?
Politics · Vol $114.04
- 5¢-2.5pp
Will Pete Buttigieg be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee?
Politics · Vol $73.25
- 3¢-3.7pp
Will Wes Moore be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee?
Politics · Vol $70.30
- 3¢-4.0pp
Will Andy Beshear be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee?
Politics · Vol $87.27
- 3¢-2.6pp
Will Mark Cuban be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee?
Politics · Vol $71.06
- 4¢0.0pp
Will Raphael Warnock be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee?
Politics · Vol $59.13
- 3¢-0.5pp
Will Tim Walz be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee?
Politics · Vol $62.08
- 4¢-0.5pp
Will Mark Kelly be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee?
Politics · Vol $59.15
- 0¢-0.1pp
Trump out as President by April 30?
Politics · Vol $663.9K
- 5¢+0.3pp
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Politics · Vol $568.9K
- 3¢+0.6pp
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
Politics · Vol $511.6K
- 1¢0.0pp
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Politics · Vol $341.3K
- 1¢0.0pp
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Politics · Vol $333.3K
- 1¢+0.1pp
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Politics · Vol $316.8K
Market Description
This market will resolve according to the first individual to be formally nominated by the Democratic Party for Vice President of the United States in the 2028 Presidential election cycle who accepts the nomination. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Aug 10, 2028
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primaryto the first individual to be formally nominated by the Democratic Party for Vice President of the United States in theLinkTypeAmbiguous wordingConfidenceextracted · low
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Wide spread (6.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.