Will Gavin Newsom be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee?
Probability
10¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+0.5pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$37.4K
Probability (last 7 days)
-6.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 1
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 20094h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 2
Wide spread — 8.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 20094.1h
- 17:51SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Expires in 20094h with open resolution ambiguity.
Price movement
+0.5pp over the last 24h, now 10¢.
Biggest hourly move: -7.0pp at 2d ago (to 10¢).
Show all 8 hour-by-hour ticks
- 1d ago · -5.5pp → 9¢
- 2d ago · -3.5pp → 9¢
- 2d ago · -4.5pp → 10¢
- 2d ago · -4.0pp → 10¢
- 2d ago · -7.0pp → 10¢
- 2d ago · -7.0pp → 10¢
- 2d ago · -7.0pp → 10¢
- 2d ago · -7.0pp → 10¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve according to the first individual to be formally nominated by the Democratic Party for Vice President of the United States in the 2028 Presidential election cycle who accepts the nomination. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Aug 10, 2028
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- to the first individual to be formally nominated by the Democratic Party for Vice President of the United States in the Ambiguous wordingextracted · lowdemocrats.org
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Wide spread (8.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.