Will Karishma Manzur be the Democratic nominee for Senate in New Hampshire?
Probability
6¢
1h
-0.5pp
24h
+1.8pp
24h Vol
$107.72
Liquidity
$18.8K
Probability (last 7 days)
+2.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Up 2pp over 24h
Now 6¢; -0.5pp in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 3245h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Thin liquidity
Only $18.8k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 3245.2h
- 18:48SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Expires in 3245h with open resolution ambiguity.
Price movement
+1.8pp over the last 24h, now 6¢.
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from New Hampshire. If no 2026 New Hampshire Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the New Hampshire Democratic party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Sep 8, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- natoOfficial government sourceextracted · high
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.