Will Matt Pinnell win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary election?
Probability
3¢
1h
+1.5pp
24h
+1.8pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$4.0K
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jun 16, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- PrimarynatoTypeOfficial government sourceConfidenceextracted · high
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Wide spread (4.7¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Probability (last 7 days)
+2.9pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 01Price move
Up 2pp over 24h
Now 3¢; +1.5pp in the last hour.
- 02Spread cost
Wide spread — 4.7¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Set an alert at the next ±5pp probability move so you find out before the next leg.
- Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
- Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jun 16, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- PrimarynatoTypeOfficial government sourceConfidenceextracted · high
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Wide spread (4.7¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 1056.7h
Price movement
+1.8pp over the last 24h, now 3¢.
Biggest hourly move: +38.1pp at 4d ago (to 39¢).
Show top 8 of 32 hourly moves
- 06:00 · -15.1pp → 2¢
- 3d ago · +15.3pp → 16¢
- 3d ago · +16.4pp → 17¢
- 3d ago · +15.6pp → 16¢
- 3d ago · +16.6pp → 17¢
- 3d ago · +16.5pp → 17¢
- 3d ago · +16.4pp → 17¢
- 4d ago · +38.1pp → 39¢
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Oklahoma, scheduled to take place on June 16, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 Oklahoma Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Oklahoma Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Alerts
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