Will Michael Minogue win the 2026 Massachusetts Governor Republican primary election?
Probability
93¢
1h
-3.0pp
24h
+40.0pp
24h Vol
$2.1K
Liquidity
$16.9K
Probability (last 7 days)
+42.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 1
Up 40pp over 24h
Now 93¢; -3.0pp in the last hour.
- 2
Wide spread — 5.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Set an alert if probability drops back below 88¢ — that's where this move would be reversing.
- Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
- Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 3069.4h
Price movement
+39.5pp over the last 24h, now 92¢.
Biggest hourly move: +42.0pp at 02:00 (to 94¢).
Show top 8 of 9 hourly moves
- 02:00 · +42.0pp → 94¢
- 00:00 · +28.0pp → 80¢
- 22:00 · +13.0pp → 66¢
- 21:00 · +13.5pp → 66¢
- 20:00 · +13.0pp → 66¢
- 19:00 · +13.5pp → 66¢
- 17:00 · +6.0pp → 59¢
- 2d ago · +3.0pp → 54¢
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Massachusetts, scheduled to take place on September 1, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 Massachusetts Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Massachusetts Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Sep 1, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- PrimarynatoTypeOfficial government sourceConfidenceextracted · high
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Wide spread (5.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.