PoliticsMulti-outcomeExpires Sep 1, 2026

Will Mike Kennealy win the 2026 Massachusetts Governor Republican primary election?

Probability

2¢

1h

+0.2pp

24h

-6.7pp

24h Vol

$1.4K

Liquidity

$12.5K

Probability (last 7 days)

-7.2pp 7d
Apr 19, 2026, 10:00Apr 26, 2026, 09:53
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 2 factors
  • 1

    Down 7pp over 24h

    Now 2¢; +0.2pp in the last hour.

  • 2

    Thin liquidity

    Only $12.5k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

What to track next

  • Set an alert if probability recovers above 7¢ — that's where this move would be reversing.
  • Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
  • Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • 0s agoResolve

    Market resolves in 3062.1h

    LOW

Price movement

-6.9pp over the last 24h, now 2¢.

Biggest hourly move: -7.7pp at 07:00 (to 2¢).

Show top 8 of 12 hourly moves
  • 09:53 · -7.4pp → 2¢
  • 08:00 · -6.7pp → 2¢
  • 07:00 · -7.7pp → 2¢
  • 05:00 · -6.9pp → 2¢
  • 03:00 · -7.3pp → 1¢
  • 01:00 · -7.0pp → 2¢
  • 00:00 · -6.6pp → 2¢
  • 22:00 · -5.5pp → 5¢
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

14
Same eventMassachusetts Governor Republican Primary Winner
Category · Politics

Market Description

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Massachusetts, scheduled to take place on September 1, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 Massachusetts Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Massachusetts Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Sep 1, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
nato
Type
Official government source
Confidence
extracted · high
Market type
Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
  • Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

¢
Deliver

In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.

Top Holders

20 wallets
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