Will Microsoft reach $435 in April?
Probability
73¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+13.5pp
24h Vol
$100.00
Liquidity
$374.22
Probability (last 7 days)
-1.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Up 14pp over 24h
Now 73¢; flat in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 131h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Wide spread — 32.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 130.7h
- 17:18SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 131h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -10.0pp
to 73¢
- 15:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -33.0pp
to 50¢
- 14:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -33.0pp
to 50¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -9.0pp
to 74¢
- 11:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -14.0pp
to 69¢
- 09:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -9.5pp
to 73¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -14.0pp
to 68¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -14.0pp
to 67¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 14.5pp
to 73¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -16.0pp
to 67¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -9.5pp
to 67¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -13.5pp
to 60¢
- 23:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 73¢
- 21:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 74¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -19.0pp
to 56¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -20.5pp
to 55¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -20.5pp
to 54¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -16.5pp
to 59¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -16.5pp
to 59¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -20.5pp
to 56¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -20.0pp
to 55¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -25.5pp
to 54¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -9.0pp
to 58¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -10.5pp
to 57¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 63¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -12.5pp
to 54¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.5pp
to 57¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -19.5pp
to 58¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point during April 2026 (ET), any 1-minute candle for Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) has a final "High" price equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only prices achieved during regular trading hours (ET) will be considered. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) "High" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/, with the chart settings on "1m" for candle intervals. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 1, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo FinanceAmbiguous wordingfinance.yahoo.com
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (32.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.