Will o1 launch a token by December 31, 2027?
Probability
87¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+0.0pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$417.96
Probability (last 7 days)
+34.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 1
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 14772h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 2
Wide spread — 14.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Loading prose summary — see the structured breakdown above.
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 14772.1h
- 16:52SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 14772h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 34.5pp
to 87¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 34.5pp
to 87¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 34.5pp
to 87¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 34.5pp
to 87¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 34.5pp
to 87¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 34.5pp
to 87¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 34.5pp
to 87¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 34.5pp
to 87¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to “Yes” if o1 officially launches a governance token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from o1 (https://x.com/o1_exchange), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jan 1, 2028
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- consensus of credible reportingNews consensusextracted · mediumx.com
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (14.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.