Will o1 launch a token by June 30, 2027?
Probability
50¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
-1.0pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$107.16
Probability (last 7 days)
+1.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Down 1pp over 24h
Now 50¢; flat in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 14771h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Wide spread — 88.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 14771.2h
- 17:47SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Expires in 14771h with open resolution ambiguity.
Price movement
-1.0pp over the last 24h, now 50¢.
Biggest hourly move: +38.5pp at 2d ago (to 87¢).
Show all 20 hour-by-hour ticks
- 17:00 · -37.0pp → 50¢
- 15:00 · -37.0pp → 50¢
- 14:00 · -37.0pp → 50¢
- 12:00 · -36.0pp → 51¢
- 11:00 · -36.5pp → 51¢
- 09:00 · -36.0pp → 51¢
- 08:00 · -36.0pp → 51¢
- 06:00 · -36.0pp → 51¢
- 05:00 · -36.0pp → 51¢
- 03:00 · -36.0pp → 51¢
- 02:00 · -36.0pp → 51¢
- 00:00 · -35.5pp → 51¢
- 23:00 · -36.0pp → 51¢
- 21:00 · -36.0pp → 51¢
- 20:00 · -36.0pp → 51¢
- 18:00 · -36.0pp → 51¢
- 2d ago · +37.0pp → 86¢
- 2d ago · +36.0pp → 85¢
- 2d ago · +36.0pp → 85¢
- 2d ago · +38.5pp → 87¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to “Yes” if o1 officially launches a governance token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from o1 (https://x.com/o1_exchange), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jan 1, 2028
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- consensus of credible reportingNews consensusextracted · mediumx.com
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (88.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.