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MacroExpires Apr 29, 2026

Will Powell say "Pandemic" during April press conference?

Probability

70¢

1h

-2.5pp

24h

-4.0pp

24h Vol

$109.10

Liquidity

$3.8K

Probability (last 7 days)

-3.5pp 7d
Apr 18, 2026, 16:00Apr 25, 2026, 15:22
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 3 factors
  1. 1

    Down 4pp over 24h

    Now 70¢; -2.5pp in the last hour.

  2. 2

    Resolution-risk signal firing

    Expires in 81h with open resolution ambiguity.

  3. 3

    Wide spread — 6.0¢

    Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

AI prose summary

 

Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.

Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves

AllTradesSignalsPrice
  • 0s agoResolve

    Market resolves in 80.6h

    LOW
  • 15:22Signal

    Signal · Resolution risk

    Expires in 81h with open resolution ambiguity.

    LOW
  • 15:22Price

    Probability down -4.0pp

    to 70¢

    MEDIUM
  • 13:00Price

    Probability down -4.5pp

    to 69¢

    MEDIUM
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Market Description

Jerome Powell is currently scheduled to give an FOMC Introductory Statement and press conference on April 29, 2026, at 2:30 PM ET. This market pertains to his Introductory Statement as well as the following Q&A session. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Powell says the listed term during the FOMC Press Conference. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any usage of the word regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market. Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count. Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy"). If no such statement happens by April 29, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be video and transcripts of the FOMC Press conference.

Resolution & Risk

MEDIUM risk
End date
Apr 29, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Not specified in metadata
Market type
Binary
  • No primary resolution source listed — read the full market rules before acting.
  • Wide spread (6.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

¢
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