Will Powell say "Pandemic" during April press conference?
Probability
70¢
1h
-2.5pp
24h
-4.0pp
24h Vol
$109.10
Liquidity
$3.8K
Probability (last 7 days)
-3.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Down 4pp over 24h
Now 70¢; -2.5pp in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 81h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Wide spread — 6.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 80.6h
- 15:22SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 81h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 15:22PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 70¢
- 13:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.5pp
to 69¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
Jerome Powell is currently scheduled to give an FOMC Introductory Statement and press conference on April 29, 2026, at 2:30 PM ET. This market pertains to his Introductory Statement as well as the following Q&A session. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Powell says the listed term during the FOMC Press Conference. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any usage of the word regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market. Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count. Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy"). If no such statement happens by April 29, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be video and transcripts of the FOMC Press conference.
Resolution & Risk
MEDIUM risk- End date
- Apr 29, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Binary
- No primary resolution source listed — read the full market rules before acting.
- Wide spread (6.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
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