Will Sharice Davids be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Kansas?
Probability
19¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
-2.0pp
24h Vol
$36.00
Liquidity
$13.3K
Probability (last 7 days)
+1.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Down 2pp over 24h
Now 19¢; flat in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 2411h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Thin liquidity
Only $13.3k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 2411.4h
- 12:35SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 2411h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 10:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.5pp
to 24¢
- 04:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.5pp
to 27¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.0pp
to 18¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -9.0pp
to 18¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.5pp
to 18¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.5pp
to 18¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.0pp
to 17¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.0pp
to 20¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.5pp
to 17¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.0pp
to 27¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.0pp
to 17¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.5pp
to 17¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 20¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 18¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 19¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.0pp
to 18¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.0pp
to 18¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.0pp
to 18¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.0pp
to 18¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 20¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.0pp
to 17¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 22¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.0pp
to 19¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 20¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.0pp
to 20¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.5pp
to 20¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 19¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Kansas. If no 2026 Kansas Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Kansas Democratic party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Aug 4, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).