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EntertainmentMulti-outcomeExpires May 2, 2026

Will "SWIM - BTS" be the Billboard Hot 100 #1 song for the week of May 2?

Probability

1h

+0.0pp

24h

+0.1pp

24h Vol

$6.00

Liquidity

$2.1K

Probability (last 7 days)

-35.4pp 7d
Apr 18, 2026, 15:00Apr 25, 2026, 12:37
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 2 factors
  1. 1

    Resolution-risk signal firing

    Expires in 155h with open resolution ambiguity.

  2. 2

    Thin liquidity

    Only $2.1k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

AI prose summary

 

Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.

Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves

AllTradesSignalsPrice
  • 0s agoResolve

    Market resolves in 155.4h

    LOW
  • 12:37Signal

    Signal · Resolution risk

    Expires in 155h with open resolution ambiguity.

    LOW
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -11.3pp

    to 0¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -11.7pp

    to 0¢

    MEDIUM
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Market Description

Billboard updates its Hot 100 songs chart each Tuesday (with adjusted release schedules on some holiday weeks), reflecting data from the previous week (Friday-Thursday). Each Billboard chart is then titled “Week of (date of the upcoming Saturday)”. This market will resolve according to the number 1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 chart titled “Week of May 2, 2026”. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant chart is published. If the Billboard Hot 100 chart for the specified week is not published within 14 calendar days of the expected release date, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be the official Billboard Hot 100 chart, published on the Billboard website (https://www.billboard.com/charts/hot-100/) or through other official Billboard channels.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
May 2, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
the number 1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 chart titled “Week of May 2, 2026”Ambiguous wordingextracted · low
Market type
Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
  • Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

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