Will "Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley" be the Billboard Hot 100 #1 song for the week of May 2?
Probability
2¢
1h
+0.3pp
24h
+0.4pp
24h Vol
$79.00
Liquidity
$4.3K
Probability (last 7 days)
-36.1pp 7dWhy did it move?
Heuristic summary, generated from the public market metrics above: probability movement, volume, liquidity, spread, signals, and resolution status.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 157.1h
- 10:55SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 157h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 10:55PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.6pp
to 2¢
- 09:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.2pp
to 2¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.7pp
to 2¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -11.7pp
to 2¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -9.7pp
to 2¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -12.7pp
to 1¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -13.6pp
to 1¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -13.6pp
to 1¢
- 22:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -15.1pp
to 1¢
- 21:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -13.3pp
to 2¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -13.4pp
to 2¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -11.3pp
to 2¢
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -9.3pp
to 2¢
- 16:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -11.3pp
to 2¢
- 14:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -11.3pp
to 2¢
- 13:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -10.7pp
to 2¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -13.8pp
to 2¢
- 11:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -13.0pp
to 2¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -10.5pp
to 2¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -21.0pp
to 2¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -21.5pp
to 2¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -19.0pp
to 1¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -20.0pp
to 1¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -18.6pp
to 1¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -22.5pp
to 1¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -24.9pp
to 2¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -34.7pp
to 1¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -33.0pp
to 4¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
Billboard updates its Hot 100 songs chart each Tuesday (with adjusted release schedules on some holiday weeks), reflecting data from the previous week (Friday-Thursday). Each Billboard chart is then titled “Week of (date of the upcoming Saturday)”. This market will resolve according to the number 1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 chart titled “Week of May 2, 2026”. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant chart is published. If the Billboard Hot 100 chart for the specified week is not published within 14 calendar days of the expected release date, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be the official Billboard Hot 100 chart, published on the Billboard website (https://www.billboard.com/charts/hot-100/) or through other official Billboard channels.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 2, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- the number 1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 chart titled “Week of May 2, 2026”Ambiguous wordingextracted · low
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).